Guojin Securities: Sodium-ion batteries are nearing an inflection point in industrialization, a key window for performance implementation and value revaluation

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that sodium-ion batteries are ushering in a historic 0-1 industrial singularity from technical verification to large-scale mass production, and the industry has entered a critical window of performance implementation and value revaluation. GWh projects at home and abroad have broken through, and energy storage is being released intensively. Sodium-ion batteries have entered a critical window of industrialization implementation and performance realization. The bank prioritizes screening core leaders with technical barriers and leading customer advantages in the industrial chain.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Total sodium electricity

Medium- to long-term TWH demand can be expected. The 100 billion blue ocean market opens, and dynamic storage or alternating dominates volume. According to the bank's estimates, the market size of the sodium electricity industry is expected to grow from 2 billion yuan to more than 100 billion yuan in 2025, and the industry will enter a rapid growth channel. Judging from the demand structure breakdown, demand in the light power/energy storage/passenger vehicle power/data center sector will reach 15/29/13/1 GWh respectively in 2027, accounting for 26%/50%/22%/2%. The industry demand structure will switch from light power to energy storage; in the medium to long term, the passenger car power market is expected to relay volume; although the data center sector currently has the smallest base, it has high potential for growth. Looking at industry development points, the bank estimates the global demand for sodium electricity in 2026-2028 at 18/59/148 GWH, with a CAGR of 183%. 2026 is expected to be a key commercial inflection point for industrialization demonstrations to large-scale implementation, and is expected to hit a phased peak growth rate.

The pattern of sodium electricity industrialization

Positive and negative poles dominate value, the scarcity of hard carbon is prominent, and double aluminum foil forms a unique cost reduction path. In the cost structure of sodium-ion batteries, cathode/anode/electrolyte/fluid collector/diaphragm/others account for 27%/20%/11%/8%/4%/30%, respectively, showing the overall value distribution characteristics dominated by positive and negative electrodes. Compared with lithium batteries, sodium electrodes replace expensive metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt with a sodium-ferromanganese based system, and the cost has declined significantly; hard carbon anodes are still in the small-batch production stage, and the cost is higher than mature graphite anodes; the industrialization of sodium hexafluorophosphate electrolytes is still early, and the scale effect is not apparent, leading to high costs; the collector can use double aluminum foil to completely replace copper foil to form a unique cost reduction path; there is little difference between diaphragms and other structural components and lithium battery technology systems. The cost reduction potential of each link is ranked as: anode > fluid collector > cathode > electrolyte > diaphragm. Among them, double aluminum foil replacement is currently the clearest structural cost reduction direction. The technical barriers in each link are: hard carbon anode > cathode material > electrolyte > diaphragm > aluminum foil. Hard carbon process barriers are the highest, and the differences in cathode technology routes are most significant.

New sodium-electric technology

Process constraints still exist, and giants have taken the lead in breaking the game. Short-term energy storage, as the most core emission entry point, is limited by the three major pain points of high cost, insufficient cycle life, and hard carbon gas production; the core bottleneck on the power side is energy density; the data center side needs to break through system-level safety and integration capabilities. Industry giants such as Ningde Times launched attacks and achieved phased milestones: the energy storage end simultaneously implemented a complete mass production process for low-cost cathodes, modified hard carbon anodes, and all-aluminum fluid collector, or achieved significant cost reduction from the core material layer; intrinsically safe electrolytes completed safety level verification to initially solve the problems of uncontrolled heat and hard carbon gas production; the power-side sodium-lithium mixing system entered final verification before mass production; the data center lithium sodium collaborated to complete small-scale pilot projects of the solution.

Sodium-electricity supply chain pattern

Control focuses on the head cell chain owner, and the investment value of aluminum foil and cathode is highlighted. The core control of the sodium power industry is concentrated on leading cell and system integrators such as Ningde Times and BYD. The production capacity, orders and technical resources of the entire industry chain revolve around leading customer certification systems. The material-side technology route has been fundamentally restructured: the cathode has switched from lithium battery ternary/lithium iron phosphate to the two main mainstream routes of polyanion and layered oxide; the negative electrode has completely switched to a hard carbon system, and cutting-edge technology such as no negative electrode has accelerated layout; the diaphragm and electrolyte only require adaptability adjustments, and the competitive pattern is highly consistent with lithium batteries. Comprehensive industry certainty, performance delivery pace, and valuation safety margin. The steady investment value ranking is: battery core leader > double aluminum foil fluid collector > polyanion cathode > hard carbon anode > second-wire battery manufacturer > sodium salt electrolyte > diaphragm.

Risk Alerts

Demand for sodium electricity falls short of expectations, new technology of sodium electricity falls short of expectations, sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices hedging demand for sodium electricity, etc.