ASM International (ENXTAM:ASM) Issued 2027 Guidance, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
ASM International (ENXTAM:ASM) drew investor attention after issuing 2027 revenue guidance of €3.7b to €4.6b and reporting half year 2026 results, including €1,865.6m in sales and €523.9m in net income.
See our latest analysis for ASM International.
The latest guidance and half year results have come alongside a share price that is up 50.42% year to date and a 1 year total shareholder return of 100.06%. However, the 30 day share price return is down 7.09%, which hints that momentum has cooled in the short term after a strong multi year run.
If ASM International’s guidance has you thinking about other chip related opportunities, it could be worth scanning 56 AI infrastructure stocks
Bulls argue ASM International’s earnings power and guidance justify the strong multi year run. Bears point to the recent pullback and rich expectations. Which side looks better supported once the valuation is laid out?
Most Popular Narrative: 18.8% Undervalued
Based on the widely followed narrative, ASM International’s fair value of €1,026 sits above the last close of €833. This frames the stock as undervalued using a 9.28% discount rate and long term earnings assumptions that stretch out to 2029.
Technological leadership in ALD and epitaxy, coupled with strong customer engagement across all leading-edge customers, underpins durable market share and pricing power as more complex nanosheet and 3D device structures proliferate, enabling ASM to sustain higher net margins despite industry cyclicality.
Curious what kind of revenue path and profit margins analysts think justify that higher fair value for ASM International. The narrative leans on ambitious growth, elevated profitability and a future earnings multiple that many investors usually reserve for sector standouts.
Result: Fair Value of €1,026 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the ASM International narrative could be tested if order intake keeps softening or if China related pressures start to weigh more heavily on revenue and margins.
Find out about the key risks to this ASM International narrative.
Another Angle On ASM International’s Valuation
The SWS DCF model tells a very different story to the AI narrative. On this view, ASM International’s estimated future cash flow value sits at €485.85 per share, well below the current €833 price, which screens as overvalued. How much weight do you want to put on cash flows versus earnings scenarios?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASM International for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 255 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With ASM International showing both potential upside and clear pressure points, it makes sense to review the full picture and decide where you stand. To weigh the balance between optimism and concern, it is worth checking the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
Looking for more investment ideas beyond ASM International?
If ASM International has sharpened your interest in semiconductor opportunities, do not stop there. Broader research can help you spot other stocks that better fit your goals.
- Target quality at a discount by reviewing companies in the 255 high quality undervalued stocks that combine solid fundamentals with prices that sit below their estimated worth.
- Strengthen your income stream by assessing potential high yield payers through the 439 dividend fortresses that focus on substantial dividend payouts.
- Calm portfolio volatility by checking companies in the 302 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on resilience and balance sheet stability.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com