Telephone and Data Systems Will Test Whether Fiber Momentum Can Offset Legacy Revenue Decline
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
TDS typically reports earnings before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | +$0.97 (+2.13%) | $4.18 (9.19%) | -$3.16 (-6.80%) | $3.43 (7.38%) |
| 2026-02-20 | -$0.25 (-0.55%) | $3.85 (8.45%) | -$1.54 (-3.40%) | $1.96 (4.33%) |
| 2025-11-07 | -$0.80 (-2.08%) | $3.51 (9.12%) | +$1.03 (+2.73%) | $1.80 (4.78%) |
| 2025-08-11 | -$0.06 (-0.15%) | $3.26 (8.42%) | +$0.26 (+0.67%) | $2.80 (7.24%) |
| 2025-05-02 | -$3.33 (-8.85%) | $4.01 (10.64%) | -$2.57 (-7.49%) | $2.22 (6.47%) |
| 2025-02-21 | -$1.68 (-4.24%) | $4.00 (10.09%) | -$1.29 (-3.40%) | $1.52 (4.02%) |
| 2024-11-01 | -$2.27 (-7.63%) | $2.20 (7.39%) | +$0.60 (+2.18%) | $1.51 (5.49%) |
| 2024-08-02 | -$1.10 (-5.21%) | $1.68 (7.96%) | -$0.96 (-4.80%) | $1.56 (7.79%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.86% | 8.91% | 3.93% | 5.94% |
Historical price behavior around TDS earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.86% and Day +1 move of 3.93%. The stock has demonstrated particularly dramatic reactions in recent quarters, including an 8.85% decline on the May 2025 report and a 7.63% drop on the November 2024 release. Intraday volatility is even more pronounced, with Day 0 trading ranges averaging 8.91% and Day +1 ranges averaging 5.94%.
The most recent earnings report on May 8, 2026 saw the stock gain 2.13% on Day 0 before giving back 6.80% on Day +1, illustrating how initial positive reactions can reverse quickly. Investors should prepare for substantial price swings in both directions, with the potential for moves exceeding 5% being quite common based on the eight-quarter historical pattern.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 15) |
| Expected Move | $2.72 (7.58%) |
| Expected Range | $33.18 to $38.62 |
| Implied Volatility | 79.25% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 7.58% (±$2.72) for the August 21 expiration, which is substantially higher than the average historical Day 0 move of 3.86% but below the average intraday Day 0 range of 8.91%. This suggests options traders are anticipating above-average volatility for this earnings release, though not at the extreme levels seen in some prior quarters.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on TDS is cautiously optimistic, with a consensus rating of 4.00 (Buy) and an average price target of $46.33. The analyst community is split between 2 Strong Buy ratings and 2 Hold ratings, with no sell recommendations currently on the stock.
The sentiment trend is classified as unchanged over the past month, indicating analysts have maintained their stance despite the recent earnings volatility. The price target range spans from a low of $38.00 to a high of $51.00, reflecting meaningful disagreement about the company's valuation.
From the current price of $36.00, the consensus target of $46.33 implies +28.7% upside potential, suggesting analysts believe the stock remains undervalued despite the recent earnings strength. The high-end target of $51.00 would represent a 41.7% gain, while even the most conservative $38.00 target implies modest upside of 5.6%.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion rates TDS as an 88% Sell, representing a slight improvement from the 100% Sell signal one week ago but unchanged from the 88% Sell reading one month ago. This bearish technical posture stands in stark contrast to the bullish analyst ratings and recent earnings momentum.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum remains negative despite recent price stabilization
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal suggests intermediate-term trend pressure continues to weigh on the stock
- Long-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal reflects persistent weakness in the longer-term trend structure
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is classified as Strong with direction Weakening, suggesting the bearish technical environment may be starting to lose intensity but remains firmly negative heading into earnings.
The stock is trading at $36.00, positioned above its 5-day ($35.02), 10-day ($34.47), and 20-day ($34.21) moving averages, indicating short-term momentum has turned positive. However, the price remains below its 50-day ($36.72), 100-day ($40.20), and 200-day ($40.90) moving averages, confirming the longer-term downtrend remains intact.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $35.02 | 50-Day MA | $36.72 |
| 10-Day MA | $34.47 | 100-Day MA | $40.20 |
| 20-Day MA | $34.21 | 200-Day MA | $40.90 |
Key resistance sits at the 50-day moving average of $36.72, just above current levels, while the declining 100-day and 200-day averages represent more substantial overhead supply. Support appears at the 20-day moving average of $34.21. The technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings, with the stock trapped below major moving averages despite recent short-term stabilization. The strong bearish technical signals across medium and long-term timeframes suggest the stock faces an uphill battle to sustain any positive earnings reaction, though the recent improvement from 100% to 88% Sell indicates some technical pressure may be easing.