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ACI Worldwide (ACIW) Could Be 12% Below Fair Value Following Raised 2026 Guidance

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

ACI Worldwide (ACIW) shares are in focus after the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance and outlined a heavier fourth quarter weighting tied to high margin Payment Software license renewals.

See our latest analysis for ACI Worldwide.

Against this guidance update, ACI Worldwide’s share price has climbed 23.88% over the past 90 days and delivered a 37.11% total shareholder return over the past year, suggesting recent momentum as investors reassess growth and risk around the payment software business.

If this earnings update has you thinking about where else payment and fintech trends might lead, it could be worth scanning 22 top founder-led companies

ACI Worldwide’s recent jump can be read two ways. Either the higher 2026 guidance and license renewal mix point to a stronger underlying engine, or sentiment has simply reset around the stock. So what does the current valuation imply?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.5% Undervalued

The most followed narrative currently pegs ACI Worldwide’s fair value at $65.33, above the last close at $57.79. This frames the latest rally in a different light.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $65.33 for ACI Worldwide based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analysts, you'd need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be $2.2 billion, earnings will come to $374.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 21.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.0%.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that valuation gap for ACI Worldwide? The key hinges on how fast earnings compound and where margins settle. Curious which specific growth and profitability paths have been baked into the model? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in plain numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $65.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on ACI Worldwide defending its position against rising fintech and stablecoin competition, while managing payment software contract volatility that could keep revenues and margins unpredictable.

Find out about the key risks to this ACI Worldwide narrative.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards on the table for ACI Worldwide, now is a good time to review the full set of data and form your own view. A helpful place to start is the breakdown of 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond ACI Worldwide?

Do not stop your research with ACI Worldwide. The wider market is full of stocks that could better fit your risk profile and income goals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.