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Rocket Lab (RKLB) Is Up 27.7% After Securing US$663 Million in New Space Contracts – Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Rocket Lab Corporation recently launched its 13th Electron rocket of 2026 from New Zealand, successfully deploying iQPS’s QPS-SAR-13 satellite and extending a run of eight fully successful missions for this radar-imaging constellation, while also securing a US$397 million U.S. Space Force SB‑AMTI Flatellite contract and a separate US$266 million suborbital launch deal.
  • These wins deepen Rocket Lab’s role as a vertically integrated space contractor, with iQPS booking 18 Electron launches and the Space Force entrusting the company to design, build, launch, and operate advanced satellites using its upcoming Neutron rocket.
  • We’ll now examine how the US$397 million SB‑AMTI Flatellite contract reshapes Rocket Lab’s investment narrative around vertical integration and defense exposure.

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Rocket Lab Investment Narrative Recap

To own Rocket Lab, you need to believe its vertically integrated model can turn today’s contracts into a durable space and defense platform, while Neutron transitions from development project to operational workhorse. The SB AMTI Flatellite award looks material to the near term story, tying Neutron directly to U.S. defense needs, but it also concentrates execution risk around getting Neutron flying on time and within the company’s already heavy spending plans.

The US$397 million SB AMTI contract is the clearest link between recent headlines and that thesis. It reinforces vertical integration by paying Rocket Lab to design, build, launch, and operate spacecraft, on top of the separate US$266 million Space Force suborbital deal. Together, these wins underline how quickly the backlog can swing on large government programs, which is exciting for growth but also reinforces the “lumpy” contract risk that consensus analysts were already worried about.

But while these contracts look like a win, investors should still be aware of how much now hinges on Neutron’s unproven launch timetable and...

Read the full narrative on Rocket Lab (it's free!)

Rocket Lab's narrative projects $1.8 billion revenue and $169.1 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Rocket Lab's forecasts yield a $114.33 fair value, a 53% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

RKLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
RKLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue could reach about US$2.2 billion and earnings US$365.5 million by 2029, which is far more bullish than the baseline view that highlights contract lumpiness and Neutron execution risk. After news like the SB AMTI award, their case for faster backlog acceleration might look stronger, but you should recognize how wide these opinions are and explore several scenarios before deciding which story you believe.

Explore 30 other fair value estimates on Rocket Lab - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.