Strategy Inc Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at US$98.37 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues came in at US$122m, in line with estimates, while Strategy reported a statutory loss of US$24.45 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Strategy after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Strategy's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$496.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 100% to US$0.16 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$501.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.39 in 2026. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Strategy
The consensus price target fell 15% to US$258per share, with the analysts clearly concerned by ballooning losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Strategy analyst has a price target of US$550 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$125. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 1.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Strategy to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Strategy dropped from profits to a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Strategy's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Strategy's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Strategy going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Strategy that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.