RBC Expects 'Steeper' Pricing Pressure for Eli Lilly in H2; Outperform Rating Kept

12:48 AM EDT, 08/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets forecasts sharper price erosion for Eli Lilly (LLY.SW, LLY.F) in the second half, as analysts took note of the pharmaceutical giant's robust second-quarter results and updated full-year outlook. "LLY delivered another strong quarter with significant outperformance. However, our key debate centered on updated guidance implying flat 2H26 revenues versus 1H26. While we acknowledge increasing volumes from improved access (CVS/Bridge), we expect steeper pricing erosion in 2H. The reiteration of full-year low-to-mid teens pricing erosion implies further deterioration beyond -7% in 1Q and -9% in 2Q in the US. We believe this will temper 2H sales growth for Zepbound and Mounjaro (RBCe 2H $30.1bn vs. 1H $27.7bn). For the rest of 2026, we remain positive on Medicare-expansion, ex-US opportunity, and pipeline," according to a Wednesday note. The research firm tweaked its model to account for the second-quarter results, trends and the revised outlook, with its full-year 2026 revenue forecast up to $87.2 billion from $86.1 billion and EPS estimate lifted to $36.21 from $34.18. Analysts said key catalysts for the second half include European Association for the Study of Diabetes presentations on eloralintide with tirzepatide, approval of tirzepatide cardiovascular outcomes, and data from the Transcend-T2D trial with retratrutide, among others. RBC maintained its outperform rating and price target of $1,500 on the stock.