CITIC Securities: The compound revenue growth rate of Keling, a subsidiary of Kuaishou (01024), may reach 104% in the next five years

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities recently released a research report stating that Keling, as the world's leading AI video generation model under Kuaishou (01024), has become the core variable affecting Kuaishou's valuation. As model capabilities continue to be iterated and application scenarios expand, Keling's revenue is expected to grow at a compound rate of 104% from 2025 to 2030, and revenue is expected to be close to 40 billion yuan in 2030. The research report predicts that Keling's revenue will increase from about 1.1 billion yuan in 2025 to about 3.5 billion yuan in 2026, and further reach about 8.8 billion yuan and 17.1 billion yuan in 2027 and 2028; by 2030, Keling's revenue is expected to reach about 39.6 billion yuan.

CITIC Securities believes that Keling is positioned as a “new infrastructure for video creation in the AGI era” and has established a one-stop creation system covering video generation, editing, and workflow, and is expected to enter various professional scenarios such as self-media content production, advertisements, short dramas, movies and TV dramas in the future. According to estimates such as the number of professional content creators in the world, user penetration rate, payment rate, and ARPPU, Keling is expected to exceed 60 million monthly active users worldwide in 2030, and the payment rate will increase to 20%.

In terms of market space, the research report estimates that in 2030, the total AI video generation market for the four types of scenes in professional content creation, advertising design and production, short dramas, and movies will total about 45 billion US dollars. Considering that the industry has high requirements for computing power, data, talent, and technical capabilities, the field of AI video generation is more likely to form an oligarchy pattern of differentiated competition among leading manufacturers rather than “winner-take-all.”

CITIC Securities said that Keling has formed comprehensive barriers in terms of strategic investment, computing power reserves, video data, core talent, technology iteration, and commercialization. With the shutdown of overseas Sora business, the slowdown in Veo iteration, and the rise in popularity of Keling 3.0 in the global market, Keling is expected to continue to consolidate its leading position and become one of the long-term core oligarchs of the AI video circuit.

At the operating level, Keling's quarterly revenue from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 increased from 150 million yuan to 650 million yuan; as of March 2026, annualized revenue ARR reached 500 million US dollars, a full five-fold increase compared to 100 million US dollars in March 2025. Currently, subscription business accounts for 60% of Keling's overall revenue, enterprise API services account for 40%, and overseas markets contribute 70% of total revenue.

At the same time, the research report points out that the main businesses of Keling and Kuaishou still have collaborative value that has not yet been separately accounted for. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Kuaishou AIGC advertising consumed about 4 billion yuan. Related applications covered scenarios such as AIGC advertising materials, digital human solutions, and marketing tools for small and medium-sized customers.

In terms of valuation, CITIC Securities uses a segmented valuation method to give Kuaishou's main business a price-earnings ratio of 10 times, and with reference to Keling's latest post-investment valuation of 18 billion US dollars, it is estimated that Keling's corresponding Kuaishou book valuation will increase by about 105 billion yuan. The agency maintains Kuaishou's “buy” rating and a target price of HK$80.