Open Source Securities: The commercial implementation of optical communication has been verified, and the time for optical fiber cable configuration has arrived

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that the capital expenditure of overseas giants is rising, the commercial implementation of optical communication has been verified simultaneously, and the rapid expansion of cloud revenue volume indirectly confirms the acceleration of the commercialization process and the acceleration of application implementation. The performance of fiber optic faucets has exceeded expectations, and the certainty of demand is still obvious. The bank believes that the scale of optical fiber demand driven by AI infrastructure construction is impressive, demand certainty is still obvious, and fiber leaders at home and abroad, which occupy the core racetrack share, are expected to continue to benefit from it. The bank continues to be optimistic about fiber optic cable investment opportunities.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

Overseas giants' capital expenditure is rising, and the commercialization of optical communications has been verified simultaneously

The computing capital expenditure of the North American AI giants continues to increase, the AI business expansion plans are clear, and the sustainability of optical communication industry trends has also been confirmed. Overall, in the second quarter of 2026, the total capital expenditure of the four largest cloud companies in North America exceeded 170 billion US dollars, and the annual guidance was revised to about 745 billion US dollars. Specifically, Google raised it to 1950 billion to 205 billion US dollars (previously 180-190 billion US dollars), Amazon raised it to 220 billion US dollars. Compared with the previous 10% increase, Meta was raised to 130-145 billion US dollars (previously 125 to 145 billion US dollars). The “Capex guidelines are in line with expectations - high increase in optical module usage - increasing prosperity in the optical communication industry chain” logic was initially confirmed. At the level of commercialization, AI investment from various giants is gradually transforming performance: Google's cloud business achieved revenue of 24.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 82% year on year; Microsoft's smart cloud business achieved revenue of 39.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 32% year on year; and Amazon's AWS cloud business achieved revenue of 42.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 37% year on year. The rapid expansion of cloud revenue volume indirectly confirms the acceleration of the commercial implementation process and the acceleration of application-side implementation.

The performance of fiber optic faucets exceeded expectations, and the certainty of fiber demand at home and abroad is still obvious

On July 14, Changfei Optical announced its performance forecast for the first half of 2026. The net profit for the first half of 2026 is expected to be 24.00-300 billion yuan, up 711%-914% year on year, with a median value of 2.70 billion yuan, up 812% year on year. Net profit excluding non-return to mother is 20.00-260 billion yuan, up 1349%-1784% year on year, median value of 230 billion yuan, up 1567% year on year. By quarter, the company's 2026Q2 projected net profit of 1,905-2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1223%-1640%, a median increase of 2,205 billion yuan, a median increase of 1431%, a year-on-month increase of 345%, and an estimated net profit of 15.39-2139 billion yuan, an increase of 1537%-2176% year-on-year, 234%-364% month-on-month, and a median value of 1,839 million yuan, up 1856% year-on-year and 299% month-on-month.

On July 28, Corning released its financial report for the second quarter of 2026. The company's optical communications business achieved sales of US$2.07 billion, an increase of 32% year on year, net profit of US$438 million, an increase of 77% year on year, and the net profit margin reached a high of 21% for the first time. Among them, the enterprise network business grew by 65%, and AIGC related products grew significantly. The company reached major long-term cooperation with Amazon and Nvidia in the first half of the year, and signed a memorandum of cooperation with BOE in May to cooperate. The bank believes that the scale of optical fiber demand driven by AI infrastructure construction is impressive, demand certainty is still obvious, and fiber leaders at home and abroad, which occupy the core racetrack share, are expected to continue to benefit from it.

Optical fiber acquisition plans have been delayed one after another, and expanding production across borders is not an easy task

On August 1, Lingyi Zhizhi issued an announcement announcing the termination of participation in the Fortis Jiashan restructuring investment. The company's original plan was to seize control and operation of Fortis Jiashan's related restructuring assets and business for no more than 4 billion yuan, thus entering the field of optical fiber communication materials applications, and eventually abandoning the investment due to the inability to make reasonable value judgments on the target assets in a timely manner. Continue to be optimistic about fiber optic cable investment opportunities. Recommended targets: Hengtong Optoelectronics, Zhongtian Technology, Yuandong Co., Ltd.; beneficiaries: Changfei Optical Fiber, Changfei Optical Cable, Tongding Internet, Yongding Co., Ltd., Hangdian Co., Ltd., Fenghuo Communications, Junzhi Group, TEFA Information, Changyingtong, Changjin Photonics, etc.

Risk warning: AI development falls short of expectations, domestic GPU supply falls short of expectations, cabinets fall short of expectations, etc.