CITIC Construction Investment: Passenger Cars Go Overseas and Exceed Expectations, Robot “Mass Production+Capitalization” Double Click Imminent

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the automotive sector is highly catalytically intensive. On August 1, production and sales/delivery data from mainstream OEMs in July was revealed, and domestic demand completely exceeded expectations, and structural α was further concentrated in the offshore chain during the off-season; the “first humanoid robot stock” pricing anchor for A-shares is about to land, adding that the Tesla Optimus production line will be put into production at a clear pace during the year. August became an intensive “mass production verification+capitalization” window for robots; August became an intensive window for “mass production verification+capitalization” of commercial vehicles in June;”, July sales will be released soon, leading The logic of a double rise in performance and valuation continues.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

passenger car

OEM production/sales/delivery data for July this week was revealed one after another, and still showed the characteristics of “domestic demand under pressure during the off-season and strong exports exceeding expectations”. The Passenger Transport Branch estimates that about 1.52 million passenger cars will be sold in the narrow sense of the term in July, with sales of about 980,000 new energy units, with a penetration rate of 64.5%. Affected by demand overruns at the end of last year and high temperatures and torrential rain in midsummer, pessimistic domestic demand expectations will continue to be price-in. There are many highlights on the export side: BYD sold 419,000 vehicles in July (+21.8% year over year), including 179,800 overseas vehicles, +124.3% year over year, Equation Panther +190.6% year over year; Chery Group 277,000 vehicles (+23.3% year over year), becoming the first Chinese car company to export more than 200,000 vehicles in a single month, with 129,000 new energy vehicles, +97.5% year over year; Geely 250,000 vehicles increased year-on-year for 5 consecutive months, with 106,700 vehicles reaching a new high of +202% compared to Krypton; Zero Run delivered 101,000 vehicles (year-over-year + 102%), becoming a new force that sold more than 100,000 in the first month. Xiaopeng delivered 38,000 vehicles in July (+4% year over year), which declined slightly from month to month, mainly due to limited Mona L03 production capacity supply, and is expected to return to the upward channel as production capacity climbs. We maintain our previous view: pessimistic expectations for domestic demand have been fully priced. August has entered an intensive disclosure period in the interim report. The fulfillment of Q2 results and expectations for the beginning of Q3 will determine the sustainability of the market; structural α continues to be optimistic that passenger car exports exceed expectations and the acceleration of high-end new energy sources, and the valuation space favors the transformation of physical AI into a new paradigm for growth.

commercial vehicle

We continue to recommend Sinotruk, the leading overseas company, Weichai Power, the leading AI power company, and Yutong Bus, the leading bus exporter. Wholesale sales of heavy trucks in June were 115,000 units, +18% year over year, with a cumulative total of 660,000 units in the first half of the year, reaching a record high of nearly five years. “Not weak in the off-season” verifies the end-of-life renewal policy and export resonance logic; heavy truck sales in July (to be released soon) are expected to continue to be steady. Wholesale sales are expected to be around 100,000 units, +20% year over year, with exports remaining at around 40,000 units (+35% year over year in June). Sinotruk's research this week revealed that export sales accounted for more than half of total sales in the first half of the year. Sinotruk International maintained the number one export industry for 21 consecutive years, and its leading position in overseas markets continued to consolidate; the logic of rising volume and price of large bore engines at the Weichai Power Data Center did not change, and AI Electric Power's second growth curve continued to be realized. In terms of buses, exports of large and medium buses in the first half of the year were close to 30,000 units, +12%. Yutong's July production and sales report will soon be revealed. They are optimistic that Q2 results will be achieved during the peak export delivery season and flexibility in the second half of the year. The win/odds are still outstanding after trade risks between China and Europe are released.

Physical AI

1) The robot main line “mass production rhythm+capitalization” double catalyzed implementation. Tesla's Q2 earnings report further clarifies the Optimus mass production path: the Model S/X production line at the Fremont plant has been discontinued, the first generation of Optimus production line is being installed, and production is expected to be put into operation later this year. The first batch of products will be put into the “Optimus Academy” to collect training data; Musk bluntly stated that humanoid robots are the hardest mass production climb in the company's history. The capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to exceed 25 billion US dollars, the first year of mass production. On the domestic side, Yushu Technology announced the launch of issuance on July 30: the listing of the “first humanoid robot stock” is expected to trigger a revaluation of the value of the physical intelligence sector; Zhiyuan initiated the listing process in Hong Kong, and it is preferable that orders for humanoid robots exceed 630 million yuan during the year. Looking ahead, the World Robotics Conference will be held in Yizhuang, Beijing on August 19-23, becoming the next intensive catalytic node. We recommend focusing on the Tesla chain's high win rate, the direction of technological iteration and upgrading, undervaluation with poor expectations, and domestic whole machine chains with capacity such as Yushu. 2) The core catalyst for the smart driving sector is getting closer: Tesla's supervised version of the FSD is expected to be approved; Robotaxi Musk said the size of the Austin fleet will double in August, and large-scale overseas commercial deployment will accelerate. The medium- to long-term trend towards smart driving is still clear. We are optimistic about incremental component and solution suppliers under the L3/L4 industry trend.

Recommended combinations: JAC, Weichai Power, Sinotruk, Yutong Bus, Jinlong, Xiaopeng, Hesai, Geely, Longxin GM, Best, and Sanhua Intelligent Control.

Risk Alerts

1. The industry sentiment falls short of expectations; 2. The effects of policy implementation fall short of expectations; 3. Export sales fall short of expectations; 4. The competitive landscape of the industry deteriorates; 5. The progress of customer development and mass production of new projects falls short of expectations.