Huachuang Securities: Liquor Q2 accelerates to become the leading product leader in China

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that the bottom signal is gradually clear, so it is better to sow in the long term and seize improvement opportunities on the right side of the quarter in the short term. The Q2 sector has accelerated, and the current bottom signal is gradually becoming clear. Looking at opportunities: First, it is recommended to “sow” a number of high-quality blue-chip white horse stocks with fundamentals that have actually come out of winter, but the stock price is still experiencing severe cold; second, from the perspective of quarterly improvement, choosing opportunities on the right side. The opportunities for mass sales of rice wine and snacks are worth focusing on. Specifically, the Liquor Q2 report is bottoming out at an accelerated pace, and it is expected to gradually pick up under a low base in the second half of the year. Popular products have high-quality blue chips at the bottom to seize marginal improvement opportunities.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Liquor: The pace of Q2 delivery has clearly slowed down, and it is expected that statements will be cleared at an accelerated pace

Liquor is still at the end of the first half of the year. Industry risks are fully reflected on the reporting side, some liquor companies' statement adjustments have been greater than the actual decline in sales, and industry inventories continue to decline. On the payment side, most wine companies clearly slowed down the pace of payment and delivery in Q2. On the sales side, the double-digit performance of the Q2 off-season industry declined year-on-year. Only leading brands were able to rotate and ship normally. In the scenario, high-end Maowu maintained steady sales under the current price system. The business group buying scene corresponding to the sub-high-end was still relatively weak, and the mass price with household consumption was still somewhat resilient. Looking ahead, after the second-quarter statements are cleared at an accelerated pace, a marginal correction is expected in the second half of the year under a low base. Looking at prices, the 26Q2 Maotai and 100 yuan popular wine companies' reports may be relatively more resilient, and other wine companies are expected to speed up their clearance. For details, see the price breakdown:

High-end: Maotai remains steady, and Wuliangye and Laojiao are still making adjustments. Maotai's Q2 revenue is expected to increase slightly by 2% year on year, and profit is flat year over year; Wuliangye's revenue/profit Q2 is -55%/+300% year over year; and Laojiao Q2 is -35%/-40% year over year.

Base type sub-high-end: Q2 is being cleared at an accelerated pace, and second-tier wine companies have a certain degree of resilience under a low base. Fenjiu's revenue/profit is expected to be -20%/-25% YoY in Q2; Yanghe Q2 -15%/-20% YoY; Furui Q2 -40%/-50% YoY; and Jinshiyuan Q2 level/ -5% yoy.

Expansive sub-high-end: Q2 sales continued to be under pressure, and reports were cleared at an accelerated pace. Shide's Q2 revenue/profit is expected to be -30% /loss year over year; Shuijing Fang Q2 revenue/profit year over year - 51% /loss.

Popular products: demand is stable in the off-season, and the leading performance is steady

Total retail sales of social consumer goods were +0.2%/-0.6%/+1.0% year-on-year respectively in 4/5/6 of '26, of which catering was +2.2%/+0.6%/+1.2% year over year; Q2 overall consumption recovery pace was moderate, and the mass goods sector showed stable overall volume and internal segmentation. Looking at specific sub-sectors, casual snacks Q2 has entered the low consumption season, and the snack volume sales channel is still the core incremental gripper for leading brands; soft drinks are being disrupted by late heating and heavy precipitation, and health categories such as sugar-free tea and ready-to-drink coffee have bucked the trend; the demand side of dairy products has maintained steady recovery, and fresh milk prices in major supply-side production areas have bottomed up and rebounded. The inflection point of the raw milk price cycle is ahead of market expectations; Haitian, the leading condiment company is still growing steadily, and second-tier baseline companies lowered their base figure for improvement. Redeployed enterprises benefit from structural upgrades, mergers and acquisitions, price increases, or related improvement logic to maintain rapid growth; freeze enterprises Influenced by high temperatures and the traditional off-season itself, the revenue growth rate has slowed down. The leader Yasui is relatively strong, and second-tier companies are generally growing in single digits; the pressure on the same store chain still exists under the high base of last year's takeout war. In terms of profit, the trend of raw material costs continued to diverge. Varieties such as soybeans, soybean oil, and PET were gradually rising due to international factors, and prices of fresh milk, white sugar, etc. fell year-on-year.

Dairy products: Leading companies operate steadily, and profits fluctuate. Demand for liquid milk in Q2 recovered steadily, but factors such as company drag down and tax supplements disrupted profits. Q2 Yili's revenue/profit is expected to be +4%/-10% YoY, Tianrun +3%/-58%, the new dairy industry +6%/+11% YoY, and Shuanghui +0%/+5% YoY. H1 Mengniu +7%/+22% YoY.

Casual and functional food: Large plates of soft drinks are under pressure, and snacks perform smoothly in the off-season. In Q2, the beverage market was under pressure due to weather factors, and the leaders showed strong business resilience. Q2 Dongpeng's revenue/profit ratio is expected to be +11%/+15%; H1 farmers are expected to be +14%/+17% year over year. Snack consumption is relatively stable. Q2 snacks are expected to be +7%/+13% YoY, negotiation ratio +9%/+640% YoY, Ganyuan +11%/+35% YoY. Roasted Angel +15%/+10% YoY, Peaches and Plums -1%/-8% YoY. Supplements Xianle +5%/+3% YoY, Tomson +6%/+4% YoY.

Condiments: Leading companies are growing steadily, and second-tier enterprises are improving. It is estimated that Q2 Haitian revenue/profit +5.5%/+8%, Zhonghe revenue +20%/+93%, Qianhe revenue +15% YoY /profit improved significantly under a low base, Tianwei +20%/+13%, Poli +15%/+11%, Mustard +4%/+0% YoY, and Yihai H1 +12%/+17% YoY.

Frozen food: still on the right side of the fundamentals, optimistic about leading companies. Yasui's revenue/profit for Q2 is expected to be +12%/+12% year over year, +1%/-18% year over year, and Qianwei +10%/-10% year over year, respectively.

Risk warning: consumer demand is falling, inventory digestion falls short of expectations, competition intensifies, etc.