Guojin Securities: The payment environment continues to improve, and the medical industry enters a period of accelerated commercialization

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that domestic machine manufacturers recommend focusing on enterprises with a first-mover installation base, multi-adaptation layout, and business model innovation capabilities, as well as enterprises with a platform-based product matrix and internationalization capabilities; at the same time, focus on industrial chain enterprises that have an implant foundation and can promote robotic+implant collaboration. The bank believes that platform-based enterprises with clinical foundations, product matrices, supply chain control, and ecological closed-loop capabilities are more likely to take the lead in speeding up revenue and improving profitability in the industry's scaling process.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Orthopedic surgical robots are moving from a supply expansion period driven by registration certificates to a commercial verification period driven by installed use

In the past few years, the main contradictions in the development of the industry have focused on whether products can be approved and whether equipment can enter hospitals; as the number of domestically registered products continues to increase and the installed base of hospitals is gradually consolidated, the driving force of industry growth will further shift to the implementation of medical service prices, the connection of medical insurance payments, the increase in the number of stand-alone surgeries, and the continuous implementation of revenue from implants, consumables, and services. The establishment of a national unified price project and the acceleration of local implementation have provided a clearer institutional foundation for the commercialization of the industry. The bank believes that 2026 is an important window for speeding up implementation of the charging system and verifying the business model, and 2027 is expected to further verify the increase in equipment usage and business flexibility.

The global market has entered a period of large-scale application, and China is still in a stage of low penetration and high growth

Global orthopedic surgery robots have evolved from technology verification, leading mergers and acquisitions to adaptation expansion and ecological operation. Platforms such as Stryker MAKO, Medtronic Mazor, and Gemma Bangmei ROSA have gradually matured. The large-scale expansion of the domestic market mainly occurred after 2021. With the intensive approval of domestic products and the entry of overseas leaders, the growth rate of the Chinese orthopedic surgical robot market is expected to remain around 40% continuously from 2024 to 2026, which is higher than the global market. Sales of orthopedic surgery robots in the 2023-2025 publicly purchased sample increased from 58 units to 115 units, nearly doubling in two years. As product supply increases, hospital awareness increases, and tenders advance, market procurement is showing an accelerated trend.

Domestic supply continues to be abundant, and the industry value chain extends throughout the life cycle

There are differences in clinical characteristics and commercialization paths in the three segments of joint, spine, and trauma: joint replacement procedures are relatively standardized, and robots can form strong collaboration with prostheses and consumables, and have clear large-scale promotion and continuous monetization paths; spinal surgery requires higher navigation accuracy, intraoperative imaging, doctors' experience and training services, which is expected to drive the integrated development of navigation, imaging, implants and technical services; the field of trauma covers a wide range of procedures, and is expected to gradually enrich robot application scenarios as indications continue to expand. At the same time, product price bands are gradually being stratified, which helps lower the procurement threshold for medical institutions at different levels. The future growth of the industry will no longer be limited to the sale of disposable devices, but will gradually extend to implants, special consumables, maintenance services, software upgrades, and clinical training, promoting a continuous increase in the whole life cycle value of a single device.

The payment environment continues to improve and is expected to become the core catalyst for commercial volume

Since 2021, the pace of NMPA approval has accelerated markedly. The new products are mainly domestic manufacturers, and the industry has broken through from individual products to a stage of centralized approval by multiple vendors; the regulatory orientation has also gradually upgraded from encouraging innovation and speeding up listing to cover the full life cycle management of registration reviews, quality systems, and post-marketing monitoring. On the payment side, the National Health Insurance Administration has established a unified price project framework divided according to navigation, participation in execution, and accurate execution, which helps reduce the difficulty of setting up local projects and provides a basis for all regions to set up fee standards and connect medical insurance payments. With the accelerated implementation of local price projects, hospital procurement enthusiasm, patient accessibility, and clinical use of equipment are expected to increase simultaneously.

Risk Alerts

The progress of health insurance payment and fee policies fell short of expectations, the pace of hospital procurement and installation fell short of expectations, increased clinical penetration rates fell short of expectations, profit pressure due to increased industry competition, risks of core technology iteration and product development, and domestic substitution processes fell short of expectations.