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Akeso (SEHK:9926) Dosed Its First AK138D1 Patient, Is The 47% Undervalued View Too Bullish?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Akeso (SEHK:9926) is back in focus after dosing the first patient in a Phase Ib/II trial of its HER3 antibody drug conjugate AK138D1 for advanced non small cell lung cancer.

See our latest analysis for Akeso.

Akeso’s latest trial milestone comes after a period where sentiment has cooled, with the share price at HK$91.95 and the 1-year total shareholder return down 39.55%, although the 3-year total shareholder return remains very strong.

If Akeso’s oncology work has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to broaden your research and look at other healthcare AI opportunities using the 126 healthcare AI stocks

After a sharp pullback despite strong 3 year returns and a fresh AK138D1 milestone, Akeso now sits at a very different entry point. Has most of the re rating already happened, or is meaningful upside still in front of you?

Most Popular Narrative: 46.6% Undervalued

Compared with Akeso’s last close at HK$91.95, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of HK$172.32. That gap rests on some punchy growth and profitability assumptions that go well beyond the current loss making base.

The company's strong R&D pipeline, including advanced bispecific antibodies and ADC candidates, provides a foundation for long-term growth, setting the stage for potential increases in net margins as products move from development to commercialization.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is doing the heavy lifting in that HK$172.32 fair value? The projections lean on rapid top line expansion, a sharp swing into profitability, and a premium earnings multiple usually reserved for market leaders. Curious which assumptions need to land for that to hold up.

Result: Fair Value of HK$172.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Akeso’s story still carries real execution risk, from ongoing operating losses to heavy reliance on cadonilimab and ivonescimab to carry future revenue expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this Akeso narrative.

Another View on Akeso’s Valuation

The community narrative leans on aggressive earnings forecasts, but the current market is sending a different message. Akeso trades on a P/S ratio of 23.9x, while the Hong Kong Biotechs industry sits at 11.3x, peers at 17.8x, and the fair ratio points to 14.4x.

That gap means investors today are already paying a premium well above both the sector and what the fair ratio suggests the market could move towards. Is that extra multiple really the margin of safety you want, or more optimism than the story currently supports?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

SEHK:9926 P/S Ratio as at Aug 2026
SEHK:9926 P/S Ratio as at Aug 2026

Next Steps

If the mixed sentiment on Akeso has you undecided, it makes sense to move quickly and review the numbers yourself. Start by weighing the 2 key rewards

Looking for more ideas beyond Akeso?

If Akeso has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with fresh ideas that match how you like to invest.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.