MakeMyTrip's Post-Pandemic Momentum Meets Its First Real Test Since the AI Booking Shift
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
MakeMyTrip reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | -$3.47 (-7.72%) | $6.43 (14.31%) | +$1.47 (+3.55%) | $2.56 (6.17%) |
| 2026-01-21 | -$9.05 (-12.13%) | $9.34 (12.52%) | +$0.81 (+1.24%) | $1.98 (3.02%) |
| 2025-10-28 | -$9.22 (-10.25%) | $11.36 (12.62%) | -$3.45 (-4.27%) | $7.49 (9.28%) |
| 2025-07-22 | +$2.70 (+2.76%) | $5.99 (6.13%) | +$1.50 (+1.49%) | $3.42 (3.41%) |
| 2025-05-14 | -$1.50 (-1.41%) | $9.17 (8.60%) | +$0.08 (+0.08%) | $3.50 (3.33%) |
| 2025-01-23 | +$6.29 (+6.10%) | $10.25 (9.94%) | -$0.37 (-0.34%) | $5.64 (5.15%) |
| 2024-10-23 | -$3.84 (-3.73%) | $9.02 (8.76%) | +$4.84 (+4.89%) | $4.78 (4.83%) |
| 2024-07-23 | +$7.29 (+8.13%) | $11.20 (12.50%) | -$6.04 (-6.23%) | $6.16 (6.36%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 6.53% | 10.67% | 2.76% | 5.19% |
Historical price action around earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 6.53% and Day 0 range of 10.67%. The most recent earnings (May 2026) triggered a 7.72% decline on Day 0, while the January 2026 report produced a sharp 12.13% drop. However, the pattern is inconsistent—October 2025 saw a 10.25% decline while July 2024 delivered an 8.13% gain.
Day +1 follow-through has been more muted, averaging 2.76% absolute movement with a 5.19% range. Recent quarters show mixed Day +1 behavior, with the May 2026 report recovering 3.55% the following session after the initial decline. The data suggests investors should prepare for a mid-to-high single-digit percentage move on earnings day, with direction highly dependent on results and guidance. The wide historical ranges indicate options sellers have been well-compensated for risk, while directional traders face genuine two-way volatility.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 21) |
| Expected Move | $2.78 (4.88%) |
| Expected Range | $54.20 to $59.76 |
| Implied Volatility | 74.23% |
The options market is pricing a 4.88% expected move for the August expiration, which sits below the 6.53% average historical Day 0 move and well below the 10.67% average Day 0 range. This suggests options are pricing in a more modest reaction than history would indicate, potentially offering value for volatility buyers if the pattern of large earnings moves continues.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on MakeMyTrip is strongly bullish, with a consensus rating of 4.86 out of 5.0—firmly in Strong Buy territory. The current breakdown shows 6 Strong Buys and 1 Moderate Buy among 7 analysts covering the stock, with zero Hold or Sell ratings. Notably, sentiment has improved over the past month, as one Strong Sell rating was removed from coverage.
The average price target stands at $72.28, implying 26.9% upside from the current price of $56.95. The range of targets spans from $60.00 to $84.00, with the high-end estimate suggesting potential for 47.5% appreciation if the bull case materializes. The tight clustering of bullish ratings and the elimination of the sole bearish voice indicate growing analyst confidence despite the near-term earnings headwinds reflected in estimate cuts.
The disconnect between deteriorating near-term earnings estimates and strengthening analyst ratings suggests the Street is looking through current quarter weakness and focusing on longer-term growth drivers in India's travel market. The 16.88% growth estimate for fiscal 2028 and 21.26% growth for fiscal 2027 support this forward-looking optimism, even as the immediate quarter faces a 45.95% year-over-year decline.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion has shifted dramatically in recent weeks, moving from Sell (16%) one week ago to Buy (24%) currently, and up from Sell (8%) one month ago. This represents a significant momentum reversal heading into earnings, though the signal strength remains Weak with a Weakening direction, suggesting the technical setup is fragile.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal indicates near-term momentum has turned positive but lacks conviction
- Medium-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the intermediate trend remains in consolidation mode
- Long-term (Hold): Neutral longer-term signal reflects an absence of established directional bias
Trend Characteristics: The weak and weakening trend environment suggests technical momentum is tentative and vulnerable to reversal, creating an uncertain backdrop for earnings volatility.
The stock is currently trading at $56.95, positioned above its 5-day ($55.45), 10-day ($53.70), 20-day ($55.18), 50-day ($50.10), and 100-day ($47.15) moving averages, but below its 200-day moving average ($59.92). This configuration shows strong short-term momentum with the stock trading well above all near-term averages, but the position below the 200-day indicates the longer-term trend remains unresolved.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $55.45 | 50-Day MA | $50.10 |
| 10-Day MA | $53.70 | 100-Day MA | $47.15 |
| 20-Day MA | $55.18 | 200-Day MA | $59.92 |
The key technical level to watch is the 200-day moving average at $59.92, which has acted as resistance and represents a 5.2% premium to current levels. A strong earnings beat could propel the stock through this level and confirm a longer-term trend reversal. Conversely, the 50-day moving average at $50.10** provides support roughly 12% below current prices. The overall technical setup is cautiously supportive heading into earnings—recent momentum is positive and the stock has reclaimed all short-term moving averages, but the failure to break above the 200-day and the weak trend characteristics suggest limited technical cushion if results disappoint. Given the historical volatility around MMYT earnings and the current positioning just below long-term resistance, the technical picture favors waiting for post-earnings clarity rather than anticipating direction.