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Harley-Davidson (HOG) Is Down 10.1% After Earnings Drop While Buybacks Continue - What's Changed

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In July 2026, Harley-Davidson, Inc. reported that second-quarter net income fell to US$79.81 million from US$107.57 million a year earlier, with first-half net income dropping to US$104.58 million from US$240.67 million, while continuing to execute its share repurchase program.
  • Despite the weaker earnings, Harley-Davidson has completed repurchases totaling 24,470,194 shares for about US$1.33 billion since July 2024, signaling ongoing capital returns even as profitability softens.
  • Next, we’ll examine how this combination of earnings pressure and continued buybacks could influence Harley-Davidson’s existing investment narrative.

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Harley-Davidson Investment Narrative Recap

To own Harley-Davidson today, you need to believe that the brand can convert its heritage and new product efforts into sustainable earnings, even as motorcycle demand and consumer spending remain under pressure. The latest results, with net income down year over year in both the quarter and first half, highlight that weaker profitability is still the key near term risk, while the main potential catalyst remains how effectively management uses its financial flexibility to support earnings per share.

The most relevant update here is the ongoing buyback program. Since July 2024, Harley-Davidson has repurchased about 24,470,194 shares for roughly US$1.33 billion, even as earnings have softened. For investors, this pairing of earnings pressure with continued capital returns puts more focus on whether future profit trends can justify reducing the share count at this pace, especially when combined with other initiatives aimed at boosting returns over time.

Yet even with these buybacks, investors should be aware that concentrated exposure to heavyweight models and an aging core customer base could still...

Read the full narrative on Harley-Davidson (it's free!)

Harley-Davidson's narrative projects $3.9 billion revenue and $233.1 million earnings by 2029. This requires a 3.4% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $2.7 million from $230.4 million today.

Uncover how Harley-Davidson's forecasts yield a $26.91 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

HOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
HOG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the lowest analysts were already expecting revenue to fall about 4 percent a year and earnings to slip toward roughly US$193 million, so this weaker quarter may reinforce their concerns about whether cost savings and the HDFS cash unlock can really offset pressure on motorcycle demand and margins.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Harley-Davidson - why the stock might be worth as much as 29% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.