TrendForce Jibang Consulting: 2027 memory market trends will diverge, DRAM supply will continue to be scarce, and NAND Flash will become relaxed

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest memory industry research, demand for memory will still be dominated by AI applications in 2027. DRAM continues to crowd out production capacity and strong demand for AI servers. The memory and HBM procurement momentum used in CPUs continues to increase, and the market maintains a tight supply pattern, and the price trend is strong. With NAND Flash's concentrated release of new production capacity and continued weakening of terminal consumer demand, supply will tend to ease in the second half of 2027, and prices may face corrective pressure.

The growth rate of DRAM supply is not as fast as the increase in demand

TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that in order to meet the medium- to long-term demand brought about by the expansion of AI infrastructure, major original DRAM manufacturers have begun production capacity expansion plans early. In the short term, suppliers will actively increase production capacity in existing plants, while speeding up process upgrades and reducing product conversion frequency to support overall bit supply expansion in 2026.

Although several suppliers plan to start production of new production capacity one after another in 2027, they are limited by pre-operation such as the construction period, equipment transfer, and raw materials. It is expected that most new plants will launch in the second half of 2027. Considering the production cycle, significant output contributions will be realized in 2028. Furthermore, since the wafer input required for the HBM manufacturing process is much higher than that of conventional DRAM (conventional DRAM), the amount of new chips added cannot be converted to effective bit output in equal proportions. The above factors will limit overall DRAM bit supply growth in 2027, and market supply capacity will continue to shrink.

Looking at the demand side, the annual increase in global server shipments in 2027 will increase by 17% compared to 2026, thanks to the continuous increase in capital expenditure by North American cloud service providers (CSPs), the accelerated shipment of Intel (Intel) and AMD (Super Power) next-generation CPU platforms, and the gradual commercialization of Agentic AI. Coupled with the growth in the carrying capacity of stand-alone HBM and the introduction of new specifications such as SOCAMM, this will significantly boost stand-alone memory capacity and will help maintain a high level of DRAM demand growth in 2027. Looking at consumer terminals such as smartphones and laptops, shipping performance is expected to continue to decline in 2027 due to the deepening effect of brand manufacturers transferring component costs, leading to an increase in the sales price of complete machines and affecting consumers' desire to switch devices.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting pointed out that the gap (contingency ratio) between DRAM supply and demand levels fell between -1% and -2% in 2026, and the supply and demand gap will expand further in 2027 as demand growth exceeds supply growth. However, major CSP capital expenditure remained at an all-time high in 2026. If memory prices remain high in 2027, the share of overall CSP capital expenditure will rise. Whether the above situation will affect the 2027 CSP capital expenditure plan and even the purchase of memory remains to be seen.

Increased NAND Flash production capacity promotes structural transformation of supply and demand

In 2026, the original NAND Flash factory mainly increased bit supply through process upgrades. Due to strong demand for AI servers and high-capacity enterprise SSDs, suppliers will continue to increase the share of enterprise SSD supply to avoid profit risks that may be caused by poor consumer demand. In 2027, with the acceleration of major manufacturers upgrading to high-ranking products and the gradual release of production capacity in new plants, it is expected that the growth rate of bit supply will surpass 2026, and the scale of market output will expand significantly.

On the demand side, due to steady server deployment requirements, CSPs and enterprise customers are strongly purchasing high-speed, high-capacity enterprise SSDs. Among them, QLC SSDs are the most prominent, and will be the main force supporting the growth in demand for NAND Flash bits in 2027. On the consumer electronics side, it is estimated that the will to buy will still be suppressed due to the successive increases in terminal prices.

In 2027, with production capacity being released one after another and consumer electronics demand is still weak, market supply and demand will usher in a structural shift. TrendForce Jibang Consulting recently took the lead in putting forward the view that the 2027 contingency ratio will change to a positive value, and the supply and demand pattern will become relaxed. However, if the popularity of Agentic AI makes breakthrough progress, it will once again drive demand for high-speed SSDs and bring overall supply and demand closer to balance.