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Earnings Miss: Saipem SpA Missed EPS By 82% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

There's been a notable change in appetite for Saipem SpA (BIT:SPM) shares in the week since its half-year report, with the stock down 10% to €3.93. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.009, some 82% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €7.3b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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BIT:SPM Earnings and Revenue Growth July 30th 2026

Following last week's earnings report, Saipem's 17 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €15.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.22 in 2026. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Saipem

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of €4.96, with Saipem seemingly executing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Saipem analyst has a price target of €6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €3.40. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Saipem shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.5% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Saipem is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

We have estimates for Saipem from its 17 analysts out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Saipem that you should be aware of.