Fangzheng Securities: Traditional probiotics are growing steadily, and the next generation of probiotics is rapidly expanding

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that the traditional probiotic market is expanding steadily, commercialization of next-generation probiotics is being implemented at an accelerated pace, and the global probiotic market may be booming for a long time, and the overall scale is expected to exceed 300 billion US dollars after 2035. Considering that the downstream brand pattern is relatively scattered, the midstream bacterial powder and formulation production pattern is more concentrated, and the Chinese market is in a domestic replacement dividend period. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on leading domestic companies that have extensive resources for independent patented functional strains and have certain production capacity for bacterial powders and formulations.

Fangzheng Securities's main views are as follows:

The health industry is leading, Europe and the US are leading, the trillion-dollar probiotic market is expanding at an accelerated pace, and the industrial pattern is concentrated in the midstream and scattered downstream

The global probiotic terminal market in 2025 was US$86.7 billion; the CAGR in 2025-2030 and 2030-2035 was 11.8% and 13.1%, respectively, and may reach US$279.6 billion in 2035; the market size of the original bacterial powder in 2025 was US$3.3 billion, corresponding to 8.1% and 11.1% in two stages, and may increase to US$8.2 billion in 2035. The downstream application structure continues to iterate. Human health accounts for 60% of the bacterial powder market. The CAGR in 2025-2035 is 10.8%, driven by increased public health awareness, improved industry supervision, and expanded demand for medicinal strains; dairy products account for about 30% but continue to decline, mainly due to insufficient consumption growth in the industry. As soon as the benefits of probiotics in feed are growing steadily, emerging application fields such as pets, agriculture, and personal care have emerged, driving agriculture and other fields to grow rapidly at a CAGR of 12%. Regionally, Europe and the US share half of the global market. China's global share of bacterial powder rose from 13.6% in 2020 to 14.8% in 2025, and 20.5% of terminal supplements in 2024, ranking third in the world, leading Europe and America in future growth. At the industrial chain level, upstream foreign investment dominates, and domestic production is being replaced at an accelerated pace; midstream foreign capital monopolies monopolize the middle and high-end markets, and domestic companies such as Weikang Probiotics are breaking through at an accelerated pace; the downstream brand pattern is scattered; the US market is the most scattered, and the Chinese market is moderate.

Scenario expansion and technological innovation promote the steady growth of traditional probiotics, and innovative breakthroughs and compliance improvements help the next generation of probiotics expand rapidly

Technology and product iteration support the steady growth of traditional probiotics, and application scenarios continue to expand from food and beverage to various fields such as agriculture and personal care; and rely on AI to achieve accurate mixing, superposition breakthroughs in various locking processes to break down bacterial inactivation pain points and improve colonization effects; dosage forms continue to innovate, leading the industry significantly in the growth rate of new dosage forms such as gummies and chewables. The next generation of probiotics represented by AKK bacteria has the unique advantage of targeted and precise intervention, combined with continuous improvement of the global compliance system, and the commercialization process is accelerated. The global market for AKK bacteria is US$210 million in 2025, and is expected to reach US$1.09 billion in 2032. The CAGR is as high as 26.5% in 2025-2032, with post-inactivated probiotics as the core growth driver. Currently, Europe and the US are leading the AKK circuit, and China, Japan, and South Korea are catching up. Domestic companies have broken through with their own patented strains and compliance qualifications, but due to restrictions on basic research, technical technology, clinical data, regulatory safety systems, etc., there is still room for optimization in industrialization.

Risk warning: The growth rate of terminal demand falls short of expectations, the supply of raw materials and large price fluctuations, the industry competition pattern has deteriorated, regulatory policies have been adversely changed, the technological innovation process has been blocked, clinical efficacy data is insufficient, and food safety and false publicity damage consumer trust.