CITIC Securities: Technology Finance comprehensively reshapes the industry's profit model Non-bank finance focuses on two main investment lines

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that technology finance is comprehensively reshaping the industry's profit model and supporting the continuous improvement of industry performance. Following the trend, Macro grasps the two-way repair cycle of IPOs and refinancing, lays out the main line of technology finance and “investment, finance and withdrawal” closed-loop model upgrades, microscopically selects high-certainty and highly elastic stocks that achieve first-level direct administration strategy placement performance, and comprehensively sorts out the two main investment lines: 1. Gaming large-scale technology projects are highly flexible, and the target is highly flexible in segmentation. 2. Focus on the all-rounder absolute leader, the target of the medium- to long-term continuous benefit model upgrade dividends.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Industry trends: Technology finance is profoundly reshaping the business model of the securities industry, and brokerage firms have completely jumped from traditional channel intermediaries to “investment and finance management retreat” partners throughout the life cycle.

With the improvement of the capital market's “1+N” policy system resonating with the national science and innovation strategy, the optimization of the “invest first, then insure” policy and internal reevaluation of the follow-up investment mechanism, the supply of high-quality hard technology assets continues to explode. By opening up a complete ecological closed loop of “project discovery - early investment - continuous service - capital exit”, brokerage firms gradually solve the core problems of short service chains and large cycle fluctuations in traditional channel business, and open up a multi-dimensional revenue generation ceiling for long-term equity investment, fund management fees, underwriting and sponsorship fees, and comprehensive services throughout the post-listing chain.

Equity underwriting: The scale of equity financing is expected to reach trillion dollars during the year, and concentration will accelerate under the influence of refinancing.

The bank expects A-share financing to reach trillion yuan for the full year of 2026. At the IPO level, Shuangchuang currently accounts for 78.67% of projects queued for IPOs, and there is a strong emphasis on hard technology. In the macro context where the new refinancing regulations continue to improve the financing efficiency of technology companies and optimize the impact of market liquidity shocks, refinancing is expected to become the core method of equity financing in the next 1-2 years. Refinancing requires strict pricing and sales capacity, and incremental business accelerates the concentration of capital intermediaries and leaders with superior project reserves. 2026H1, CR3 of equity underwriting reached 58%, and the long-term pattern is expected to be further concentrated at the top.

Placement follow-up: In 2026Q2, follow-up revenue was confirmed to exceed 6 billion yuan, leading the thickness of the leading project.

2026Q2, the main technology market continues to reflect improvements in IPO performance. According to linear cashout estimates based on the distance from the lifting period (same below), the 2026Q2 achieved a floating profit of 6.355 billion yuan, and the performance flexibility of the follow-up investment business was fully unleashed. The bank expects that by the end of 2027, investment income converted from unbanned projects to be realized will remain above 1.5 billion dollars in a single quarter, and long-term revenue growth will still depend on the recovery in the primary market issuance pace and continued reserves for new projects. Leading brokerage firms in the industry are leading the way in terms of thickness and profit stability to be lifted.

Direct investment cashout: Tier 1 direct investment has entered the cashout window, and the ability of large-scale technology IPOs to take heavy positions will become the core winners and losers for the next two years.

Technology project IPOs are being implemented intensively. Leading institutions rely on the “alternative subsidiary+PE subsidiary” dual model to build a foundation for performance growth over the next two years through a front-end industrial layout. Among the current 14 large-scale technology IPOs that have raised more than 4 billion yuan, Cathay Pacific Haitong (hit 9 orders) has established a leading edge with extensive track coverage. China Merchants Securities, Huaan Securities, etc. rely on deep heavy positions in individual flagship projects (such as Changxin Technology) to lock in huge profits. Overall earnings are expected to usher in a continuous strong gradual explosion in the next four quarters, which has become an important factor driving changes in the industry pattern.

Business collaboration: The penetration rate of “buy first, then insure” continues to increase rapidly, and the business synergy effects of major investment banks continue to show.

The “invest first, then insure” model shows the characteristics of leading the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the accelerated penetration of GEM at the level of the double innovation sector; in the competitive landscape, leading brokerage firms have achieved high collaborative transformation with forward-looking investment, research and capital advantages, and the participation of small and medium-sized brokerage firms is relatively low. The deepening of this model has further consolidated the core barriers of a closed loop of “investment, integration and retreat” ecology, accelerated the gathering of industrial dividends to leading institutions, and continued to solidify the pattern of industry differentiation.

Long-term outlook: Driven by the systematic optimization of the refinancing system and the wave of technology companies going overseas, the brokerage industry is progressing from traditional channel intermediaries to integrated service providers for industrial capital.

On the one hand, refinancing reform policies such as shelf issuance and market price issuance lengthen the investment banking service cycle and promote the transformation of revenue from one-time underwriting to continuous support; on the other hand, the global layout of technology enterprises has spawned cross-border financing and exchange rate safe-haven requirements, driving the expansion of capital businesses such as FICC and foreign exchange derivatives. The profit structure of leading brokerage firms has been upgraded to transactional and capital intermediation types.

Risk factors:

The risk of tightening equity financing policies and slowing down the pace of issuance; the risk of a sharp pullback in the secondary market in the technology sector; the risk that iconic large-scale technology IPOs will fall short of expectations; and increasing industry differentiation has exposed the tail risks of small and medium-sized brokerage firms.