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Why ON Semiconductor (ON) Is Down 14.6% After Pre-Earnings Jitters Around Its SiC Expansion Strategy

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In the past week, ON Semiconductor Corp. moved lower ahead of its August 3, 2026 earnings release, as investors weighed analyst expectations for higher year-over-year earnings and revenue.
  • The focus now centers on how its push into silicon carbide, wide bandgap technologies, and advanced power solutions for automotive and AI data centers could reshape its longer-term prospects amid capacity and auto-demand risks.
  • Next, we’ll examine how the upcoming earnings report and SiC investment focus may influence ON Semiconductor’s broader investment narrative.

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ON Semiconductor Investment Narrative Recap

To own ON Semiconductor, you need to believe its focus on silicon carbide, wide bandgap power, and automotive and AI data center content can offset cyclical pressure in autos and capacity utilization. The recent share pullback ahead of earnings highlights exactly that tension, but it does not materially change the core near term catalyst: proof that SiC investments can start to translate into cleaner margins, while underused fabs remain the biggest near term risk.

The most relevant recent announcement here is ON Semiconductor’s expanded EliteSiC collaborations with Geely and NIO, which tie its SiC roadmap directly to higher voltage EV platforms. These deals sit at the heart of the SiC growth story that analysts are watching into the August 3 earnings report, because they test whether new automotive programs can eventually offset exits from legacy products and help justify the capital going into SiC capacity.

Yet beneath these opportunities, investors should be very aware of how underutilized manufacturing capacity could...

Read the full narrative on ON Semiconductor (it's free!)

ON Semiconductor’s narrative projects $8.4 billion revenue and $2.3 billion earnings by 2029. This implies 11.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of roughly $1.7 billion from $573.7 million today.

Uncover how ON Semiconductor's forecasts yield a $113.52 fair value, a 44% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ON 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ON 1-Year Stock Price Chart

The most pessimistic analysts you might compare yourself to see more risk in SiC and auto exposure, even before this selloff, assuming revenue of about US$8,000,000,000 and earnings of roughly US$2,200,000,000 by 2029, so it is worth asking whether this new volatility pushes the story closer to their caution or supports a stronger recovery path.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on ON Semiconductor - why the stock might be worth just $75.35!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.