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To own Cleveland-Cliffs, you need to be comfortable with a cyclical, tariff-exposed steel producer that is still losing money while trying to tighten costs and refine capital allocation. The key short term catalyst remains progress toward profitability and cash generation, while a major risk is the company’s leverage and sensitivity to policy and demand swings. The latest quarter’s smaller loss and the completed buyback do not materially change those core drivers, but they do slightly improve the near term picture.
The most relevant update here is the promotion of long-serving CFO Celso Goncalves to President and Board member, while he retains the CFO role. For investors focused on the catalyst of cost improvement and balance sheet repair, this continuity in financial leadership ties directly into how effectively Cleveland-Cliffs may pursue further efficiency gains, manage debt, and prioritize uses of cash alongside its still loss making operations.
But investors should also weigh how Cleveland-Cliffs’ reliance on older, carbon intensive steelmaking methods could affect future costs and demand if regulatory pressures accelerate...
Read the full narrative on Cleveland-Cliffs (it's free!)
Cleveland-Cliffs' narrative projects $23.1 billion revenue and $1.2 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 6.4% yearly revenue growth and a $2.1 billion earnings increase from -$866.0 million today.
Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $11.65 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting Cleveland-Cliffs to reach about US$22.8 billion of revenue and roughly US$814 million of earnings, which is a far more upbeat view than the baseline narrative. When you set those expectations against the latest loss making quarter and the ongoing reliance on traditional blast furnaces, it is a reminder that your own view on the stock can reasonably differ a lot from theirs.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth as much as 75% more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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