According to Kaitou Macro, if the broader AI stock boom falls apart, then the won may strengthen in the next 18 months. Elias Hilmer, a macromarket economist at KITU, said that the bursting of the AI bubble will bring two major negative factors to the US dollar: the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2028, and capital inflows supporting the boom in US stocks will slow down. Although semiconductor exports will also slow down, South Korea will continue to maintain a huge trade surplus. If the AI-driven rise in the stock market comes to an end, the outflow of overseas capital from Korean retail investors slows down or even returns, the current undervaluation of the won may be drastically corrected. The won is expected to rise about 5% from the current level by the end of 2027. The won is likely to appreciate by about 15% by the end of 2028. In the short term, the won will continue to be pressured as the Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and capital outflows continue. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three times by 25 basis points each by early 2027; as for South Korea, the AI export boom is expected to keep the economy strong, and monetary policy risk bias will further tighten.

According to Kaitou Macro, if the broader AI stock boom falls apart, then the won may strengthen in the next 18 months. Elias Hilmer, a macromarket economist at KITU, said that the bursting of the AI bubble will bring two major negative factors to the US dollar: the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in 2028, and capital inflows supporting the boom in US stocks will slow down. Although semiconductor exports will also slow down, South Korea will continue to maintain a huge trade surplus. If the AI-driven rise in the stock market comes to an end, the outflow of overseas capital from Korean retail investors slows down or even returns, the current undervaluation of the won may be drastically corrected. The won is expected to rise about 5% from the current level by the end of 2027. The won is likely to appreciate by about 15% by the end of 2028. In the short term, the won will continue to be pressured as the Federal Reserve becomes hawkish and capital outflows continue. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates three times by 25 basis points each by the beginning of 2027; as for South Korea, the AI export boom is expected to keep the economy strong, and monetary policy risk bias will further tighten.