Homrich & Berg says 10-year real yields at 2.4% leave stocks expensive versus bonds

PUBT · 1d ago
Homrich & Berg says 10-year real yields at 2.4% leave stocks expensive versus bonds
  • Homrich & Berg flagged a tougher outlook for US stocks as 10-year Treasury real yields hit 2.4%, the highest since fall 2023.
  • S&P 500 trailing earnings yield stood at 3.67%, leaving a 123-bps spread versus the 10-year TIPS yield, the narrowest since the tech bubble.
  • Equity risk premium fell below 75% of observations since 1980, a regime historically linked to higher volatility and slower equity returns.
  • In comparable low-ERP periods, median forward S&P 500 returns were 2.6% over six months, 6% over 12 months.


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