Oppenheimer's performance prelude to Palantir (PLTR.US): Q2 results will exceed expectations and raise guidelines, and the target price of $200 anchors the revaluation of AI software leaders

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market on August 3. Against the backdrop of severe shocks in the AI software sector and Palantir's stock price falling by about 30% during the year, Oppenheimer (Oppenheimer) analyst Param Singh gave an extremely optimistic forecast in his latest report on July 27, reaffirming the “outperforming the market” rating and a target price of $200. The company is expected to “steadily surpass performance and raise annual guidance.”

Singh expects Palantir's second-quarter revenue to grow by about 85% year-on-year, far exceeding the median value of 79% in the company's official guidelines. The Wall Street consensus estimates adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share and revenue of US$1.81 billion, which is nearly double that of US$0.16 and US$1 billion in the same period last year. Oppenheimer further predicts that Palantir will raise the annual revenue growth guide from the current 71% to over 75%.

Q2 results preview: 85% growth far exceeds the guideline, and full-year expectations have been raised again

Singh expects Palantir's second-quarter revenue to increase by about 85% year over year, far exceeding the company's median guideline of 79%. More importantly, he expects Palantir to raise the annual revenue growth guide from the current 71% to over 75%. This combination of “exceeding expectations and increasing” is extremely rare in the current software industry.

Wall Street's consistent forecast shows that the market consensus on PalantiRQ2's revenue was US$1.81 billion, up 81% year on year; adjusted earnings per share forecast was $0.34 to 0.35, up about 112.5% to 118.8% year over year. In the same period last year, the company had revenue of $1 billion and earnings per share of $0.16. Singh's forecast means that Palantir will grow well above the market average for several consecutive quarters.

US Government Business: The Dual Drivers of the Department of Homeland Security and the Middle East War

Singh clearly stated that the US government business is still Palantir's core growth engine, and the sector's growth rate is expected to reach around 80% in the second quarter. Growth is mainly driven by two factors: increased spending by the Department of Homeland Security and a surge in defense demand due to the war in the Middle East.

Oppenheimer's industry research shows that Palantir is “actively expanding” in several US military branches and combat commands. Since 2026, Palantir's layout in the defense field has continued to deepen: the US Department of Defense's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) has granted Palantir USG a production contract to extend its AI operating system license to the entire Department of Defense; the US Army has consolidated about 75 decentralized contracts, listed the company's Maven intelligent system as a formal project, and signed a 10-year corporate agreement with a maximum limit of 10 billion US dollars. Additionally, the Ministry of Defense recently awarded Palantir a contract worth up to $250 million.

The outlook for international government operations, however, is relatively bleak. Singh expects international growth to slow somewhat as several European allies are still looking for alternatives to Palantir. Earlier, it was reported that the UK is comprehensively reviewing its National Health Service (NHS) contract with Palantir and is facing political pressure to use a suspension clause at the end of the initial period in early 2027. This international headwind partially offset strong growth in the mainland of the United States.

US commercial business: the “immunity” logic behind 135% growth

The US commercial business is another major growth pole that Oppenheimer is optimistic about. Singh expects the sector to achieve a year-on-year growth rate of more than 135% in the second quarter, and the growth rate is expected to remain above 125% throughout the year. Despite market concerns that Big Language Model (LLM) vendors may erode Palantir's competitive advantage, Singh's survey shows “these concerns have been exaggerated.”

Oppenheimer believes that Palantir's ontology (Ontology) supports more complex workflows and applications, while LLM suppliers prefer simpler workflows—this technical difference forms Palantir's moat in complex enterprise scenarios. More notably, Singh pointed out that Palantir appeared to be “immune” to transaction delays affecting other software vendors this quarter. Proxy AI tools such as Orchestrator, Agent Engine, and Agent SDK released at DevCon 6 on July 14 have further strengthened Palantir's competitive advantage in complex enterprise AI deployments.

Long and short confrontation: Burry's shorting and Wall Street differences

While Oppenheimer is bullish, the “big short” investor Michael Burry once again shorted Palantir on the eve of earnings reports. Burry believes that Palantir's valuation is still too high and warns that even a slight slowdown in AI growth could put pressure on the stock price.

Palantir's current valuation is indeed high: the stock price is about $122 to $132, the price-earnings ratio is about 135 times, and the 52-week trading range is $106.37 to $207.52. The 32 analysts according to S&P Global have a consensus rating of “buy”, with an average target price of $182.2 — lower than Oppenheimer's target price of $200, but there is still significant upside.

Citibank analyst Tyler Radke recently reiterated the “buy” rating, but lowered the target price from $225 to $200, believing that poor performance after earnings reports made the risk-return ratio more attractive. DA Davidson raised the target price to $175.