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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) Stock Faces 9.36% Dividend Coverage Strain After Q2 2026 Earnings

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) has put fresh numbers on the table for Q2 2026, reporting revenue of US$551.6 million and basic EPS of US$0.62, supported by trailing twelve month EPS of US$2.05 and a trailing net margin of 12.1% compared with 10.2% a year earlier. The company has seen quarterly revenue move around the US$516 million to US$571 million range over the last six reported periods, while basic EPS has ranged from US$0.07 to US$0.73. This sets the backdrop for the current print and the 12.9% earnings growth reported over the past year. Together with a high reported dividend yield and the existing margin profile, these results give investors a clear profitability snapshot to weigh against payout risks and perceived rewards.

See our full analysis for Alliance Resource Partners.

With the latest quarter in focus, the next step is to see how these numbers line up with the dominant narratives around Alliance Resource Partners, and where the data may strengthen or challenge those views.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

NasdaqGS:ARLP Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026
NasdaqGS:ARLP Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026

12.9% earnings growth and 12.1% margin in focus

  • Over the last 12 months, Alliance Resource Partners reported earnings growth of 12.9% and a trailing net profit margin of 12.1% compared with 10.2% a year earlier, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of about US$2.2b and net income of US$263.5 million.
  • What stands out for a bullish take is that earnings growth of 12.9% over the year and a 12.1% margin line up with the view of Alliance Resource Partners as a cash generative business, yet this sits against forecasts that revenue may grow 3.7% a year and earnings 11.3% a year, which are both slower than the cited wider US market growth rates.
    • Supporters of a stronger long term story can point to the combination of double digit earnings growth and a margin that is higher than the 10.2% level reported a year earlier as evidence of solid profitability over the last 12 months.
    • At the same time, the forecast revenue growth of 3.7% and earnings growth of 11.3% still trail the referenced US market figures of 12.6% and 17.1%, so any bullish narrative has to balance recent profit strength with more modest forecast expansion.

Some investors use this mix of improved trailing profitability and slower forecast growth as a starting point to compare different earnings paths across community narratives for Alliance Resource Partners, then see how those views hold up when fresh data arrives through the next set of results. 📊 Read the what the Community is saying about Alliance Resource Partners.

P/E of 12.5x and US$97.96 DCF fair value gap

  • The stock is cited on a trailing P/E of 12.5x against a US Oil & Gas industry average of 14.3x and a peer average of 21.8x. The current share price of US$25.63 is well below a stated DCF fair value estimate of US$97.96.
  • Supporters of the bullish angle argue that a below industry P/E together with a large gap to a DCF fair value strengthens the value case, yet the figures also prompt questions about why the market is assigning this discount.
    • On one side, a P/E that sits under both the industry and peer averages, combined with a share price that is far below the DCF fair value of US$97.96, heavily supports the view that Alliance Resource Partners may be priced conservatively relative to its recent earnings power.
    • On the other side, the same valuation gap can be read as the market building in caution about the coal and fossil fuel exposure, especially when growth forecasts of 3.7% for revenue and 11.3% for earnings are below the referenced broader US market.

9.36% dividend yield and coverage concerns

  • The reported dividend yield of 9.36% is flagged as not being well covered by either reported earnings or free cash flow over the last year, even as earnings grew 12.9% and the net margin was 12.1%.
  • Critics highlight that a payout cited as not well covered by earnings or free cash flow fits a bearish narrative on dividend risk, and the data here gives that view clear numerical backing.
    • The combination of a high 9.36% yield with only US$263.5 million of trailing twelve month net income and a 12.1% margin offers income, but the reference to weak coverage means bears can reasonably question how durable that payout is relative to underlying profits.
    • That tension is sharper when the same period is described as showing high quality earnings and 12.9% growth, since it suggests that even with stronger trailing earnings, the dividend still strains the reported earnings and free cash flow base.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Alliance Resource Partners's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

With mixed signals around earnings, valuation, and dividends shaping the current sentiment on Alliance Resource Partners, now is a good time to review the numbers, weigh the trade offs, and decide how comfortable you are with both the income story and the underlying risks and rewards that other investors are watching, including the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

See What Else Is Out There

Alliance Resource Partners couples a 9.36% dividend yield with coverage concerns and growth forecasts that trail the referenced wider US market, raising questions about income durability.

If you are uneasy about dividend strain and want income ideas with stronger backing, check out the 8 dividend fortresses to compare alternatives side by side.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.