The geographical crisis sparked an outflow of 225 million dollars, and Bitcoin fell below 64,000

According to Woofun AI, the growing geopolitical tension between the US and Iran, combined with the sudden withdrawal of institutional investors from Bitcoin spot ETFs, has jointly triggered sharp fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. This reversal of capital in the macro context marks an abrupt end to the strong gold suction momentum that had continued for seven days, and market sentiment quickly turned cautious. Bitcoin prices then came under pressure, and investors reassessed their risk exposure amid uncertainty, leading to a significant correction in asset prices.

This market shock, which is driven by both geographical conflicts and capital flows, highlights the profound impact of external macro-variables on the crypto asset pricing mechanism, and also reveals that institutional investors' safe-haven logic is undergoing structural changes in an extreme environment.

The sharp reversal of capital flows is the core driving force behind this round of adjustments. On Thursday, July 24, the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced its first negative trading day since July 13. The net outflow on that day reached US$225.2 million, completely ending the boom that had accumulated net inflows of nearly 1 billion US dollars over the previous seven days.

Although the industry recorded a net inflow of about US$274 million throughout the five-day trading cycle, the huge outflow in a single day was enough to cause market panic. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, FBTC, owned by Fidelity (Fidelity), became the hardest hit area, losing funds of US$202.5 million in a single day, accounting for the vast majority of total outflows.

Meanwhile, BitWise's BitB, ARK 21Shares' ARKB, Franklin Templeton Fund (BEN.US) EZBC, and Smart Tree Investment (WT.US) BTCW all showed small net outflows, showing green across the board. Only Morgan Stanley (MS.US)'s MSBT bucked the trend and attracted $5 million in new investment, which became one of the few highlights.

This division among institutions shows that capital withdrawals are not evenly distributed, but are concentrated on leading products, reflecting the centralized position adjustment behavior of large institutions when risk appetite shrinks.

The intertwining of geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic expectations has further amplified market anxiety. The military conflict between the US and Iran has continued until the fifth month. Continued rise in oil prices has directly heightened concerns about inflation, thereby suppressing the performance of the US stock market and forcing investors to re-examine the Fed's next policy decision-making path. Under this macroeconomic pressure, Bitcoin, as a representative risk asset, has naturally become the preferred target for capital withdrawal.

Recent developments in diplomacy, however, have injected hope amidst uncertainty into the market. According to reports, Donald Trump ordered a temporary suspension of military operations after 13 consecutive days of attacks. The decision followed talks between Omani officials and Iranian representatives in Tehran. The two sides focused on the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical global energy transportation channel.

Although the Houthis are still operating along the Bab Armand Strait, continuing to disrupt international trade and maintain high concerns in the global market, the progress of diplomatic mediation has mitigated expectations of the worst to a certain extent. This delicate balance of geopolitics causes the market to fluctuate repeatedly between fear and hope, making it difficult to form a one-sided trend.

From a technical perspective, the price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around $63,800, and whether this price can be effectively supported is the key to the short-term trend. If it holds, the price is expected to rebound to $67,000; if it falls below, it may fall below the $60,000 mark. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $64,300, but the daily increase was limited due to cautious buying attitudes. Market participants are still weighing geopolitical dynamics with broader economic risks, making it difficult to sustain recovery in the short term.

Notably, Ethereum has shown a very different level of resilience during this period. On Thursday, an Ethereum spot ETF attracted $26.3 million in fresh capital inflows, so positive demand for the product from institutional investors has continued to rise for five consecutive days.

This differentiated performance shows that investors' interest has not completely disappeared, but in the current environment, some funds prefer Ethereum over Bitcoin, reflecting the deepening of the internal rotation logic of crypto assets.