China Galaxy Securities: The monthly decline in personal insurance narrows and the high base disturbance phase is evident

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that 2026 is the beginning of the “15th Five-Year Plan”. Under the guidance of the Party and state policies, the insurance industry will usher in dual opportunities for asset-side improvement and debt-side transformation. On the asset side, under the impetus of policy combinations, insurers' asset allocation has ushered in multiple optimization spaces, and the pressure on the asset side is expected to ease under the “healthy cow” scenario in the equity market. On the debt side, the allocation value of insurance products that lock in compound interest benefits for a long time in a low interest rate environment is still prominent. The “deposit moving” effect stimulates the continuous release of debt-side potential. Short-term pressure on premium income does not change demand resilience, and I am optimistic about the valuation repair space of the insurance industry in the future.

The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

The industry's original premium income growth rate maintained a trend of deregulation, and the year-on-year decline in property insurance narrowed slightly

In January-June, the insurance industry achieved original premium revenue of 3.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.25% over the previous year. The increase was 1.02pp narrower than the previous value (January-May: +4.27%). In terms of personal insurance, in January-June, the insurance industry achieved personal insurance premiums of 3.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.32% over the previous year. The increase was 1.24pp narrower than the previous value (January-May: +5.56%). Among them, life insurance premium income was 2.39 trillion yuan, up 4.65% year on year. The increase was 1.50 pp narrower than the previous value (January-May: +6.169%); health insurance premiums reached 643.8 billion yuan, 3.459% year on year. The increase was 0.45pp narrower than the previous value (January-May: +3.91%); accident insurance premiums reached 50.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.33% year on year, an increase of 0.02pp compared to the previous value (January-May: -0.30%). In terms of property insurance, the insurance industry achieved property insurance premiums of 767.9 billion yuan in January-June, a year-on-year decrease of 0.849%. Compared with the previous value (January-May: -0.89%), the decline was 0.04pp narrower than the previous value (January-May: -0.89%). Among them, car insurance premium income was achieved at 400.4 billion yuan, down 0.02% year on year. Compared with the previous value (January-May: -0.249%), the decline was 0.21pp; non-car insurance premium income was 317.5 billion yuan, down 1.98% year on year, and the decline increased by 0.10pp compared to the previous value (January-May: -1.899%)

The year-on-year decline in original premium income in a single month narrowed in June, and the year-on-year growth rate of car insurance picked up further

In June 2026, the insurance industry achieved original insurance premium income of 665.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%. The high base effect of “speculation and suspension” in the same period last year continued. In terms of personal insurance, the personal insurance business achieved a total premium income of 505.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.60%. Among them, the life insurance business achieved premium income of 405.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.15%; the health insurance business achieved premium income of 91.6 billion yuan, an increase of 0.80% over the previous year; and the accident insurance business achieved premium income of 8.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.44%. In terms of property insurance, the property insurance business achieved premium income of 160.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. Among them, the car insurance business achieved premiums of 79.3 billion yuan, an increase of 0.99% over the previous year; the non-car insurance business achieved premiums of 81.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26%.

The scale of industry assets continued to grow, and net assets declined slightly

By the end of June 2026, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 43.86 trillion yuan, up 11.82% year on year and 1.459% month on month. The net assets of the insurance industry reached 4.07 trillion yuan, up 8.43% year on year and down 1.33% month on month. Among them, the total assets of personal insurance companies reached 38.66 trillion yuan, up 12.57% year on year, accounting for 88.14%; total assets of property insurance companies reached 3.38 trillion yuan, up 6.37% year on year, accounting for 7.71%; total assets of reinsurance companies were 0.88 trillion yuan, up 2.13% year on year, accounting for 2.00%; and insurance asset management companies reached 0.15 trillion yuan, up 11.49% year on year, accounting for 0.349%.

Risk warning: the risk that the macroeconomy falls short of expectations, the risk that long-term interest rates will continue to decline, and the risk of equity market fluctuations.