Earnings Miss: UniCredit S.p.A. Missed EPS By 13% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Last week saw the newest half-yearly earnings release from UniCredit S.p.A. (BIT:UCG), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of €13b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 13% to hit €1.94 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from UniCredit's 15 analysts is for revenues of €26.3b in 2026. This would reflect an okay 5.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €26.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.56 in 2026. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for UniCredit
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of €90.44, with UniCredit seemingly executing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic UniCredit analyst has a price target of €107 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €77.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the UniCredit's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that UniCredit is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
We have estimates for UniCredit from its 15 analysts out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for UniCredit that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.