Dongwu Securities: Short-term tenders for wind power equipment are under pressure, optimistic about the “15th Five-Year Plan” growth space between the two seas

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that in the direction of the sea wind, the certainty of installed capacity increased in '26, combined with deep-sea promotion and the release of overseas demand, the profit and valuation of the industrial chain are expected to be recovered simultaneously; in the direction of land wind, price increase orders are gradually delivered, and the profit flexibility of fan companies is high. Recommendation: 1) Tower pipe pile: Domestic profit inflection point has been reached, overseas orders open up profit ceiling; 2) Submarine cable: deep-sea increases unit value, strengthens 500kV and flexible seabed cable barriers, and the leading powerhouse is Hengqiang; 3) Complete engine: The profit inflection point for fans is gradually emerging, opening up room for growth for overseas and new businesses.

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

Demand for installed land and sea wind resonated in '26, and I am optimistic about the growth space between the two seas

From January to June 2026, China added 38.6 GW of wind power installed, -24.9% compared to the same period; of these, 11.04 GW was added in January-February. 1) On the land wind side, after the implementation of document No. 136, electricity prices for new energy power plants were fully entered into the market, and wind power and photovoltaic power plants all fell; the installed capacity of the landwind industry is expected to remain flat year-on-year in '26, with an average installed capacity of 110 to 120 GW during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, which is supported; 2) In terms of sea wind, the deep-sea plan is about to be launched, and the military marine use issue is expected to rise to an average of 15 GW in the “15th Five-Year Plan”.

European ocean wind plans continue to increase, and the deep sea resonates with overseas markets

On the domestic side, the “15th Five-Year Plan” clearly establishes the construction of offshore wind power bases for the first time. The Energy Administration and other departments are promoting a three-year action plan for offshore wind power. They plan to advance the construction of about 80 GW of offshore wind projects in the next three years, superimposing the first batch of about 21 GW of deep-sea demonstration projects and about 100 GW of reserve sites, driving a total of more than 100 GW of large-scale development; regional projects such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Hainan are being actively promoted. Overseas, although the short-term grid connection pace is weak. With the addition of about 2 GW of grid connections in 2025, the cumulative installed capacity is close to 39 GW, and the total sea wind target of each country exceeds 150 GW; in 2018-2025, European Seabreeze FID has accumulated about 36 GW, of which about 22 GW of already decided projects have yet to be connected to the grid. With the promotion of the CFD mechanism and completed FiD projects gradually entering the construction period, it is expected that the installed capacity growth rate will increase markedly starting in '26. Meanwhile, demand for land wind is growing rapidly in emerging markets such as Africa, the Middle East, India, and Latin America. According to GWEC forecasts, the new installed land wind capacity in these regions will grow from 17 GW in 2025 to 41.8 GW in 2030, with a compound growth rate of about 19.7% in 2025-2030, and global wind power demand is expected to remain high. Europe and emerging markets still need to rely on China's industrial chain in pain points such as cost reduction, fans, and floating foundations.

Submarine cable: The voltage level is gradually increasing, and the leading pattern continues to strengthen

With the launch of seabreeze installations, an increase in offshore distance, and an increase in the share of ultra-high voltage submarine cables, in 2025, China's submarine cable market size is about 7 billion yuan, +6.5% over the same period. 2026E and 2030E are expected to reach 96 billion yuan and about 24 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of about 28%. Judging from the tender opening results, the gross margin for 220kV submarine cables has basically stabilized at 35-40%, while the gross margin for 500kV AC and ±500kV flexible straight submarine cables has remained high at 45-55% recently. In terms of orders, as of 25Q4, Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology's orders for submarine cables reached 117 billion yuan and 12.1 billion yuan respectively, and leading orders continued to be added; there was a large gap between overseas submarine cable supply and demand. China Cable and Zhongtian were the first to receive overseas main cable orders, and Chinese companies had export opportunities.

Tower pipe piles: the inflection point of domestic profits, going out to sea to open the ceiling

On the domestic side, processing costs for tower tube piles have basically bottomed out. With seabreeze starting in '26, enterprises are expected to experience upward flexibility in net profit per ton; overseas, the supply of single pile production capacity in Europe is limited. It is estimated that in '26, the actual production capacity of the country will be less than 1 million tons, demand is about 1.5 million tons, and orders are expected to spill over to Chinese companies; at the same time, domestic medium and heavy plate prices are significantly lower than in Europe, and there is room for growth.

Fans: Fan prices have rebounded steadily, profitability is expected to improve in '26, bringing flexibility overseas

Lu Feng's bid price increased by more than 5% from the bottom in '25, and the opening price basically stabilized in '26; OEMs continued to absorb cost pressure through iteration of large megawatt models and supply chain cost reduction. The gross margin of the 25-26Q1 manufacturing sector improved month-on-month, and domestic profitability is expected to rise steadily in '26, and the manufacturing sector is expected to gradually reverse losses. On the overseas side, overseas orders and deliveries have clearly increased in 25 years. Overseas gross margin is higher than domestic 5 to 10 pcts, and overseas markets are expected to bring high profit increases.

Fan parts: large-scale expansion is slowing down, prices are stabilizing, profits are expected to recover

The rate of large-scale fans slowed significantly in '25, supply and demand for large-scale castings and finishing processes were tight, and it is expected that prices will stabilize in '26; on the blade side, driven by price increases of raw materials such as epoxy resin, the price of blades has risen by 5 to 10% in '25, and it is expected that there will still be room for 5 to 6% price increase in '26; in terms of gearboxes, unit prices have dropped slightly but the profitability of leading companies is still strong. At the same time, industry leaders have accelerated production expansion and actively expanded export business to support profit recovery.

Risk warning: Increased competition, changes in policies exceeding expectations, new installed capacity falling short of expectations, fluctuating raw material prices.