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Nokia (HLSE:NOKIA) Stock Faces Q2 EPS Squeeze That Tests Bullish Margin Narratives

Simply Wall St · 23h ago

Nokia Oyj (HLSE:NOKIA) has reported Q2 2026 revenue of €4.8 billion and basic EPS of €0.004, while trailing twelve month revenue stands at €20.4 billion with EPS of €0.127, setting a clear snapshot of where the business sits today. Over the past year, the company has seen revenue range from €4.3 billion to €6.1 billion per quarter and EPS move between a loss of €0.007 and a high of €0.097, giving investors plenty to weigh up as they assess what the latest margin profile and earnings mix might signal for the next phase of the Nokia Oyj story.

See our full analysis for Nokia Oyj.

With the headline numbers in place, the next step is to see how Nokia Oyj's latest earnings line up against the most common narratives around its growth potential, profitability, and risk profile.

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HLSE:NOKIA Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026
HLSE:NOKIA Revenue & Expenses Breakdown as at Jul 2026

Net margin at 3.4% with earnings under pressure

  • On a trailing twelve month basis Nokia Oyj generated €20.4 billion of revenue and €702 million of net income from continuing operations, which works out to a 3.4% net margin compared with 5% a year earlier.
  • Consensus narrative points to stronger long term demand from areas like Fixed and Optical Networks, yet the current 3.4% margin and the earlier €1.0 billion one off loss mean the profitability story is still uneven.
    • Supporters of the consensus view highlight that trailing revenue is running at 4.6% annual growth, which fits the idea of a solid top line backdrop even while margins are lower.
    • At the same time, the step down from 5% to 3.4% net margin is a clear reminder that Nokia's ability to turn that revenue growth into earnings is not yet matching the optimistic margin improvements many analysts are expecting.

EPS swings test the bullish growth story

  • Quarter by quarter, EPS has moved from a loss of €0.007 in Q1 2025 to €0.096845 in Q4 2025 and then down to €0.0043 in Q2 2026, while trailing EPS sits at €0.127, showing a very uneven earnings path even though the trailing figure is positive.
  • Bulls argue that Nokia's exposure to areas like private wireless and hyperscalers could support much higher earnings over time, but the recent EPS pattern asks investors to separate that story from the current volatility.
    • The bullish narrative talks about margins rising from around 3.9% today to double digit levels, yet the last twelve months still include that €1.0 billion one off loss and a margin of only 3.4%, which is some distance from the higher margin world bulls have in mind.
    • Where the bullish case leans on long term catalysts, the fact that EPS in Q2 2026 is only €0.0043 after €0.0184 in Q1 2026 shows that short term earnings can move around a lot while investors wait for any of those longer range margin improvements to show up in the reported numbers.
On these numbers, bullish investors are effectively betting that Nokia's current 3.4% margin and choppy EPS are a staging point for the kind of higher margin, higher earnings profile described in the more optimistic narrative, not the new normal for the business. 🐂 Nokia Oyj Bull Case

High P/E and volatility fuel the cautious view

  • Based on the trailing earnings, Nokia trades on a P/E of 65.6x compared with 20.7x for the wider European Communications industry and a peer group average of 80.1x, while the share price of €8.22 has also shown higher volatility than the Finnish market over the last three months.
  • Bears focus on the combination of that elevated P/E, the drop in net margin from 5% to 3.4%, and recent price swings as a sign that expectations remain demanding even after a period of earnings pressure.
    • The cautious narrative points to ongoing margin pressure from competition and higher costs, and the current 3.4% margin together with the €1.0 billion one off loss in the trailing data align with that concern about profitability being squeezed.
    • At the same time, the DCF fair value in the dataset of €11.61 is above the current €8.22 share price, so anyone leaning on the bearish view needs to weigh those profitability and volatility concerns against a model that indicates upside if earnings reach the levels assumed in that DCF.
Skeptics often frame Nokia's 65.6x P/E and recent share price swings as signs the market is paying a high multiple for earnings that are still exposed to margin and volatility risks, which is exactly the tension the more cautious narrative is built around. 🐻 Nokia Oyj Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Nokia Oyj on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Mixed on Nokia Oyj after all this, or leaning clearly bullish or cautious, either way it helps to check the underlying data and sentiment yourself and move quickly while the picture is fresh in mind by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Nokia Oyj's 3.4% net margin, volatile EPS path and 65.6x P/E against uneven profitability suggest that earnings quality and risk are key concerns for investors.

If Nokia's earnings swings and higher volatility leave you wanting steadier opportunities, compare this profile against companies in the 294 resilient stocks with low risk scores to find stocks with more resilient risk characteristics.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.