Swedencare AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Swedencare AB (publ) (STO:SECARE), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr670m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just kr0.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Swedencare's three analysts is for revenues of kr2.86b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 4.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 87% to kr0.94. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr2.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.04 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for Swedencare
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr39.50, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Swedencare, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr45.00 and the most bearish at kr34.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Swedencare is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Swedencare's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 27% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Swedencare.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Swedencare. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Swedencare going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Swedencare that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.