BTC bottomed out at 82,000, the key to the rebound depends on the Federal Reserve

According to Woofun AI, digital asset management company Grayscale's latest research suggests that Bitcoin's downward trend may have ended, and the price has formed solid support at $82,000. This judgment is based on significant changes in the market's microstructure, marking the end of the previous adjustment phase where the ATH fell by 22% from a record high (ATH). The core logic is that the selling pressure in the spot market has substantially weakened, and the intervention of institutional buyers has effectively curbed the further decline in prices and provided a key anchor for market stability.

Dismantling from the microstructure of capital flows, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have shown a continuous fund-raising trend and have become an important force in stabilizing market sentiment. It is worth noting that despite the liquidation phenomenon during the derivatives market, capital continued to flow into related products.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this countertrend inflow shows that long-term investors are still actively deploying, providing deep support to the market. This synergy between institutions and long-term capital offsets short-term speculative selling pressure, making Bitcoin show strong resilience at key prices.

At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's (Federal Reserve) interest rate policy will be the core variable that determines the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. If the Federal Reserve initiates quantitative easing (QE) or cuts interest rates at the benchmark interest rate, the reduction in capital costs will directly drive capital flows to riskier and more volatile assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if inflation indicators remain high, forcing the monetary authorities to maintain a hawkish stance and delay interest rate cuts, cryptocurrency prices may fall into a state of consolidation and fluctuate only within a limited price range. Therefore, whether the macro-monetary environment is relaxed or not directly determines whether Bitcoin can break through the current resistance level.

Technical aspects and on-chain data further confirm the stability of the market. The intrinsic volatility of Bitcoin options declined markedly after the price rebounded from a local low, suggesting that market fears have subsided. At the same time, on-chain data shows that network computing power has remained stable, greatly reducing the risk of mining companies facing large-scale bankruptcy. In the short term, market trends will closely track Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and US quarterly employment data. This is a typical example of the market once again focusing on fundamental data after macroeconomic policies shift to strengthened expectations.