Guohai Securities: The express delivery industry shows remarkable resilience, and structural opportunities in the sector are worth paying attention to

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that in the current macroeconomic context where overall consumption is showing weak recovery and structural differentiation, the express delivery industry has shown remarkable resilience beyond the general consumer market. The bank believes that this stems from structural growth driven by multiple engines within the industry. With the continuous expansion of the instant retail scene and changes in consumption habits, the sector's structural opportunities are worth paying attention to. The express delivery business volume is expected to grow steadily, maintaining the “recommended” rating for the express logistics sector.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

E-commerce Express: “Volume Increase” Ballast Stone in the Context of Consumption Downgrade

Traditional e-commerce express delivery is the basic market of the industry. The year-on-year growth rate of express delivery business volume in the first half of 2026 continued to be higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods during the same period, becoming the core window for examining consumer resilience. In the current economic environment, its resilience with respect to consumption is reflected in two core levels: First, consumption is further shifting to online, and the growth rate of retail sales of online goods gained a driving force that surpassed the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods. Total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2026H1 were +1.3%. Among them, retail sales of specialty stores, department stores, and brand specialty stores in the retail industry above the limit were -1.5%, -2.1%, and -8.7%, respectively. Retail sales of online products were +4.8%. Online consumption is still comparable Strong resilience, online shopping penetration rate increased 1.0 pct year over year. Second, the evolution of China's population structure, consumers are paying more attention to quality-price ratio, and changes in channel ecology, etc., driving changes in the consumer market growth logic. On the one hand, low-tier cities have benefited from the advancement of urbanization and the decline in digital channels as an important source of market growth. On the other hand, all tier cities may face the deepening impact of the “consumption substitution” trend, and the value of express delivery packages may drop further. As a result, the growth rate of express delivery business has a structural advantage that surpasses the growth rate of retail sales of online products.

Integrated logistics: supply chain extension opens a second growth curve

Major integrated logistics companies, represented by SF Express Holdings, are “desensitizing” the consumer market through business expansion. In the traditional sense, time-sensitive parts are an important business of SF Holdings, but in recent years, SF Holdings has actively expanded into the supply chain and international business. On the one hand, with the upgrading of China's industry, enterprises are gradually promoting production capacity and markets globally. The global supply chain is undergoing profound reshaping. Increased market fluctuations and competition have made customers place higher demands on the supply chain. SF Holdings continues to improve digital intelligence services, not only partially optimizing logistics, but also helps customers improve supply chain resilience and build cost and efficiency barriers from a global perspective of the supply chain; on the other hand, the bank believes that the correlation between the logistics requirements of the manufacturing supply chain and macro-consumption cycle is relatively weak, and it is more dependent on the upgrading and expansion of the industry itself to resist consumption. Important cushion. After excluding KLN's cyclical business in 2025, the company's supply chain and international revenue were +32.3%. Revenue continued to accelerate in the first quarter of 2026, and the second growth curve accelerated. The share of supply chain and international business in revenue is expected to continue to increase.

Overseas logistics: an “incremental engine” under overseas e-commerce dividends

If the domestic market is the express delivery industry's “stock game” and “resilience defense,” then the overseas market represents a vast world of “incremental attacks.” Chinese logistics companies, represented by Jitu Express, are replicating their domestic express delivery operation experience to emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. These regions are generally in a stage where online shopping continues to develop. The growth rate of express delivery business volume in 2025 is significantly higher than that of mature domestic markets. With the continuous improvement of overseas logistics networks, it is expected that it will continue to grow at a high rate. The bank believes that the continued expansion of the overseas business may have led to a “misalignment” between Goku Express's performance and the domestic consumption cycle, further strengthening the company's risk-resistant attributes.

Instant retail logistics: a new growth pole under changing commercial flows

Instant retail is an important incremental racetrack. Participants represented by SF Express in the same city have built a differentiated advantage. With the continuous expansion of the instant retail scene and changes in consumption habits, the structural opportunities in this sector are worth paying attention to. First, in terms of sales channels, the channel pattern is becoming more and more diverse, and brands are less dependent on a single platform, and order distribution has more room for independent choice; second, in terms of service stability, independent third-party platforms are more suitable for chain brand customers that require more control over services; third, judging from industry trends, the chainization rate of the Chinese market is still in an upward channel. With deep binding with brand customers, SF Express Tongcheng has been able to simultaneously extend the service network and share penetration dividends along with its channel expansion.

Risk warning: Online shopping demand for physical products falls short of expectations; e-commerce express price competition worsens; risk of declining stability of terminal franchisees; risk of rising oil prices; risk of macroeconomic fluctuations in overseas markets; risk of instant retail industry growth falling short of expectations, etc.