Barclays announces the advent of the “golden age” of technology IPOs: AI innovation cycles in multiple fields rarely overlap, and market acceptance capacity is higher than the peak listing period in 2021

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the global technology IPO market is at a historic turning point. Jamie Turturici, head of equity capital markets at Barclays Bank Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT), called the current technology industry IPO market a “golden age” in an interview on Wednesday, saying “I have never seen so many innovation cycles happen simultaneously” in his career.

This judgment coincides with news that China's AI unicorn Moonshot AI (Moonshot AI) is sprinting into pre-IPO financing with a valuation of 50 billion US dollars — although the haze of SpaceX's stock price slump after listing has not yet dissipated, capital market expectations for a new wave of tech IPOs are surpassing short-term fluctuations.

Barclays “Golden Age” assertion: Six major innovation cycles resonate

Turturici pointed out that the current group of technology companies flocking to the open market is far more than the core field of artificial intelligence, but covers six major sectors, including power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, automation, defense technology, and space. He described the current phase as roughly the third year in a typical 5 to 6 year IPO cycle.

Barclays has reached the highest number of key listed reserve projects in more than six years, and is likely to surpass the IPOs of 16 technology companies last year. This reserve size echoes the explosive growth of the global IPO market in the first half of the year. According to EY (EY) data, the amount of global IPOs raised in the first half of 2026 reached 193.6 billion US dollars, a sharp increase of 210% over the previous year. Although the number of IPOs dropped 7% to 509, SpaceX raised 86.3 billion US dollars to become the largest IPO in history, accounting for 45% of the world's total capital raised in the first half of the year.

Market carrying capacity: 165 trillion yuan market capitalization and 8.3 trillion idle capital

Turturici believes that market concerns about absorbing surging supply have been exaggerated. Turturici's confidence in market acceptance is based on three core data. First, the total market value of the global stock market has reached 165 trillion US dollars, an increase of 40% over the 120 trillion US dollars during the peak of IPOs in 2021. Second, the average daily trading volume was 140% higher than in 2021. Third, the idle capital in money market funds reached 8.3 trillion US dollars, compared to only 5 trillion US dollars in 2021. These data form the core basis for his optimistic judgment on market acceptance capacity.

These numbers mean that even if a number of super unicorns such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Stripe go public at the same time, the depth and liquidity of the market is sufficient to digest. Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the US IPO would raise a record $160 billion in 2026, which is more than three times the amount of about 48 billion US dollars in 2025.

From China to America: AI unicorns line up to enter

While Barclays is making a high-profile announcement of the “golden age,” the most aggressive capital expansion sample of China's AI big model circuit is surfacing. According to reports, Dark Side of the Moon plans to launch the final round of financing before listing in Hong Kong in August. The target pre-investment valuation is as high as 50 billion US dollars, and it will land in Hong Kong stocks within 6 months as soon as possible.

This Tsinghua AI company, founded in April 2023, completed an astonishing jump in valuation from US$300 million in the angel round to US$50 billion in the pre-IPO round in less than three and a half years. 2026 is the year of the most rapid capital expansion in Dark Side of the Moon: from January to February, three consecutive rounds of financing (500 million, 700 million, and 700 million US dollars) were completed, and the valuation climbed from 10 billion US dollars to 18 billion US dollars; in May, series D financing of about 2 billion US dollars was completed, with a valuation of 20 billion US dollars. Since the beginning of the year, the company's cumulative financing has exceeded 3.9 billion US dollars, and the total financing amount has exceeded 37.6 billion yuan, making it the company with the most cumulative financing among China's big model startups.

The direct catalyst for this capital rush is Kimi K3 — an open source weighting model with 2.8 trillion parameters, known by the company as one of the largest open source models in the world. The release of K3 caused a shock on Wall Street, and was called by Morgan Stanley analyst Gary Yu as “a sign that China's big model is fully catching up with America's leaders.” Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu directly called it a “home run.” At the commercialization level, Dark Side's annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeded 100 million US dollars in the first quarter of 2026, surpassed 200 million US dollars in May, and further exceeded 300 million US dollars in June.

On the North American side, Anthropic is actively preparing for an IPO. It has selected Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan Chase as lead underwriters, and the listing is expected to be completed in October this year as soon as possible. After completing the financing in May this year, the company's valuation has risen to 965 billion US dollars, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. Meanwhile, OpenAI has postponed the IPO schedule to 2027, which is further delayed from the original plan. According to statistics, the total value of the IPO reserves of AI companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, has reached about 3.6 trillion US dollars.

In terms of valuation benchmarking, Dark Side of the Moon's target of $50 billion is in a delicate position — OpenAI's latest valuation is around $300 billion, and Anthropic is around $61.5 billion. Taking into account geopolitical risks and chip acquisition restrictions, this valuation reflects specific discounts for Chinese AI companies.

SpaceX shadow: 'break' alert for biggest IPOs

However, the “Golden Age” was not devoid of shadows. SpaceX (SPCX.US) went public in June at an issue price of US$135, raising a record US$86.3 billion. It closed at $160.95 on the first day of listing, then surged to $225.64 due to an influx of retail investors. However, as of July 22, the stock price had fallen to 115.26 US dollars, down about 15% from the issue price, and about 50% from its high point. The higher market capitalization evaporated more than 1.2 trillion US dollars.

The SpaceX bust revealed the risk of an AI concept stock valuation bubble. The company's revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was US$4.694 billion, with a net loss of US$4.276 billion. It fell below the issue price within one month of listing, “throwing a pot of cold water” on the IPO listing market.

Turturici isn't concerned about this. He believes that the recent poor performance of newly listed technology stocks (SpaceX in particular) is not a major problem — most major IPOs are unlikely to take place before September, which should allow time for the industry to recover. Investor demand for high-quality private companies remains strong enough to offset short-term fluctuations.

However, Turturici believes that the recent poor performance of newly listed technology stocks — SpaceX in particular — is not the main problem. He pointed out that most major IPOs are unlikely to take place before September, which should allow time for the industry to recover. Investor demand for high-quality private companies remains strong enough to offset short-term fluctuations. According to S3 Partners data, SpaceX's short holdings have soared to about $25 billion, accounting for 29% of tradable shares. Furthermore, after the August 4 second quarterly report, the first batch of unbanned SpaceX shares (up to 9115 million shares) will enter the market, which is equivalent to 1.4 times the IPO circulation market. However, historical experience shows that even if Meta plummeted by nearly 50% after listing in 2012, it eventually returned above the launch price 14 months later.

Industry differentiation: the “AI dividend” of software stocks and the full blooming of the hardware circuit

While AI hardware and infrastructure companies are dominating the IPO wave, Turturici also pointed out that software companies are not without opportunities — as long as they can prove that their performance benefits from AI and have a solid competitive advantage. After the general sell-off of software stocks in April this year triggered by concerns about the AI threat, investors began to pay closer attention to segments of the industry. Cybersecurity and infrastructure software companies are getting good momentum from AI.

“Now you're really starting to see investors seriously analyze this situation,” Turturici said. “If you're a cybersecurity company or infrastructure software company, you might actually get good momentum from AI.” This judgment suggests that companies in the software sector that can prove that their performance benefits from AI and have a solid competitive advantage will still be favored by capital in the IPO wave.

Barclays investment bankers report that buyers' demand for open technology offerings has reached a multi-year high. This demand comes not only from the AI circuit, but is also widely distributed in fields such as power infrastructure, data centers, robotics, automation, and defense technology. The EY report also confirms this trend — IPO reserve projects are increasingly defined by AI and hard technology (semiconductors, data centers, robotics, advanced manufacturing).