In the second quarter of 2026, the El Niño phenomenon already occurred, and the probability of a strong El Niño occurrence increased in the fourth quarter. Expectations of a long-term reduction in palm oil production provided bottom support, but high inventories in production areas actually dampened market growth. Although the situation in the Middle East recently escalated and the palm oil market followed the rise in crude oil, there is still a risk that the geopolitical premium will subside in the future. Later, the palm oil market waited for signals from production cuts in production areas and stock replenishment in sales areas. The market may rise unilaterally after the pressure on fundamentals abates.

In the second quarter of 2026, the El Niño phenomenon already occurred, and the probability of a strong El Niño occurrence increased in the fourth quarter. Expectations of a long-term reduction in palm oil production provided bottom support, but high inventories in production areas actually dampened market growth. Although the situation in the Middle East recently escalated and the palm oil market followed the rise in crude oil, there is still a risk that the geopolitical premium will subside in the future. Later, the palm oil market waited for signals from production cuts in production areas and stock replenishment in sales areas. The market may rise unilaterally after the pressure on fundamentals abates.