Wanlian Securities: Consumer demand is expected to support express delivery demand, suggestions actively pay attention to valuation repair opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that the current online retail sales growth rate remains resilient. In the short term, it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to competition in the express delivery industry after the “618” peak season ends; in the medium to long term, the “15th Five-Year Plan to Expand Consumption” was released, and the policy side continues to boost consumption. Consumer demand is expected to support express delivery demand. As the “anti-domestic roll” policy continues to advance, the average price of express delivery has rebounded, and this is reflected in the performance of express delivery companies. Currently, the valuation of major individual stocks in the industry is at a historically low level. It is recommended to actively pay attention to valuation repair opportunities brought about by the recovery in performance.

The main views of Wanlian Securities are as follows:

The cumulative growth rate of online retail sales has declined somewhat, and the continued increase in policies to support consumption is expected to support the zero growth rate of the society to stabilize

Online retail sales of physical goods in the first half of 2026 were 6.4 trillion yuan, +4.8% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from the January-May growth rate, accounting for 25.85% of total retail sales of social consumer goods, up 0.26 pct from January to May. On July 13, the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan to Expand Consumption” was released, mentioning that “by 2030, total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach about 60 trillion yuan”, implying an average annual growth rate of about 3.7%, which is the same as the growth rate in 2025. Steady growth in total social zero is expected to further support the growth in express delivery demand.

The growth rate of express delivery volume continues to decline, the “anti-internal volume” policy continues to advance, and the average express delivery price is picking up

In the first half of the year, the revenue from the express delivery business reached 771.41 billion yuan, +7.3% year on year. The growth rate was +0.1 pct compared to January-May. The business volume reached 10.38 billion units, +5% year over year. The growth rate was 0.2 pct slower than in January-May. The average price per item was 7.68 yuan/piece, +2.3% year over year. According to the June monthly data, express delivery business revenue reached 136.040 billion yuan, +7.70% year over year, business volume reached 17.51 billion units, +3.80% year over year, and the average price per item was 7.77 yuan/piece, +3.8% year over year. The effects of the “anti-internal volume” policy continued to show.

The “anti-domestic roll” policy and digital intelligence capabilities continue to advance, and the 26H1 performance expectations of many listed express delivery companies have increased dramatically

The June business volume of SF Holdings, Yunda Co., Ltd., Yuantong Express, and Shentong Express were 13.89/21.72/28.590 billion tickets respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.9%/+0.0%/+8.6%/+18.6%, respectively. SF Holdings/Yunda Shares/Yuantong Express/Shentong Express June ticket revenue was 14.41/2.11/2.06/2.11 yuan/piece, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +5.4%/+10.5%/-1.1.6%/+6.0%. Shentong Express, Yuantong Express and Yunda Co., Ltd. recently announced first-half year performance forecasts. Among them, the net profit of Shentong Express 26H1 increased 109.59% to 133.85% year on year, Yuantong Express increased 69.34% to 85.73% year on year, and Yunda shares increased 71.15% to 98.57% year on year.

Risk factors: Economic recovery falls short of expectations, online consumer demand falls short of expectations, industry competition continues to intensify, costs rise, industry growth falls short of expectations, etc.