Changes in Hong Kong stocks | COSCO Marine (01138) rose more than 7%, institutions say it is difficult to change the trend of oil transportation once again in the US-Iran conflict

The Zhitong Finance App learned that COSCO Hainan (01138) rose more than 7%. As of press release, it had risen 6.61% to HK$13.38, with a turnover of HK$179 million.

According to the news, the Houthis in Yemen announced the imposition of a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia on the 20th, which took effect immediately. The Saudi-led multinational coalition later stated that measures had been taken to protect the safe passage of member States' ships through the Mander Strait and would resolutely respond to any threat from the Houthis. The analysis indicates that once the Mander Strait is blocked simultaneously, the alternative route (taking Yanbu Port in Saudi Arabia - Zhoushan Port in Ningbo as an example) will greatly increase the range of 129.8% after circumventing Cape of Good Hope, or spawn additional shipping demand for about 148 VLCCs (estimated at 5 million b/d).

Huayuan Securities believes that in the medium to long term, the geographical conflict may gradually ease, Middle East crude oil exports are expected to gradually recover, and the oil freight center is expected to continue to rise, and the three major trends are expected to resonate. Crude oil production continues to increase in the Middle East and Atlantic regions. The diversified layout of crude oil imports from Asia lengthens shipping distances, and crude oil shipping is expected to increase rapidly. Combined with VLCC supply-side restrictions, the pace of elimination of old ships is accelerating, and oil transportation fundamentals continue to improve; the “Changjin factor” reshapes the pricing logic of the industry and catalyzes potential geographical changes, and the “big era of oil transportation” is expected to arrive.