UBS: Kimi K3's performance is close to leading the closed source frontier model, and the mainland AI model is expected to gradually gain global market share

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a research report saying that after the success of Zhi Spectrum (02513) GLM-5.2, the bank was encouraged by the rapid progress of the Chinese model. The Kimi K3 model released by Dark Side of the Moon has also attracted strong global attention. As the world's largest open source LLM, its performance is close to the leading closed-source cutting-edge model. Alibaba-W (09988) announced the Qwen 3.8-Max preview. The target performance is reported to be close to Fable 5, while the potential release of DeepSeek V4 GA (official version) may further strengthen the cost efficiency advantage of the Chinese model.

The bank believes that China's open source ecosystem will accelerate the spread of technology and create R&D synergies to help more Chinese AI laboratories narrow the capability gap with their global peers. Although the capital scale of Chinese AI developers is smaller than that of their overseas peers, Kimi K3's capability breakthroughs and architectural innovations are expected to ease investors' concerns about training computing power limitations or model distillation. It is reiterated that cost efficiency is still the core advantage of the Chinese AI model, and believes that under the trend of industry shifting to token (token) optimization, they are expected to gradually gain global market share.

The bank said it has a positive view of Chinese cloud vendors Ali, Tencent Holdings (00700), Baidu Group-SW (09888), and Jinshanyun (03896), driven by the industry's smooth trend brought about by the demand for AI training and reasoning, and is particularly optimistic about Ali because of its progress in Qwen 3.8 and its strategic exposure to the dark side of the Moon. For model companies that have already been listed, the bank believes that recent weak stock prices reflect concerns about increased competition after Kimi K3's release. It believes that more than 40% of Smart Spectrum's stock price adjustments since July 17 have basically been taken into account in short-term concerns, and it is still optimistic about its past development/model release records, etc. At the same time, we are also continuing to monitor the progress of the MiniMax-W (00100) in terms of releasing new models.