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WaFd (WAFD) Posted Stronger Q3 Earnings, Is The Stock Fully Priced?

Simply Wall St · 4d ago

WaFd (WAFD) is back on investors radar after its third quarter 2026 earnings update, which combined higher net interest income and net income with rising net charge offs and continued share repurchases.

See our latest analysis for WaFd.

WaFd's latest earnings and buyback update came as the stock gave up some short term ground, with a 1 day share price return of down 3.36% and a 7 day share price return of down 3.28%. However, the 90 day share price return of 5.35%, year to date share price return of 14.66% and 1 year total shareholder return of 27.40% point to momentum that has been building rather than fading.

If WaFd's recent move has you reassessing your watchlist, this can be a good moment to look more widely and check out the 18 top founder-led companies

After WaFd's recent pullback, the stock sits close to analyst targets yet trades at a slight premium to one intrinsic value estimate, raising the question of where fair value really lies between the current price and that range of views.

Most Popular Narrative: 1.1% Undervalued

WaFd's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $37.25, just below the last close of $36.84. This suggests a tightly balanced valuation story built on detailed earnings and growth assumptions.

The Build 2030 shift toward true commercial banking and small business relationships, including reorganized business, corporate and commercial real estate banking teams, positions WaFd to grow higher yielding C&I and CRE loans, supporting faster revenue and earnings growth.

Ongoing runoff of low yielding single family mortgage loans and redeployment into higher yielding agency mortgage backed securities with no credit risk should structurally lift asset yields and net interest margin over time, improving net income.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what this Build 2030 shift means in numbers? The narrative ties loan mix changes, margin assumptions and future earnings multiples into one valuation roadmap, but the precise growth, margin and discount rate inputs sit behind the full fair value model.

Result: Fair Value of $37.25 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the WaFd narrative still faces two key risks: pressure on profit margins and the possibility that credit or funding conditions become less favorable than analysts assume.

Find out about the key risks to this WaFd narrative.

Another View on WaFd's Valuation

While the most followed WaFd narrative points to a fair value close to the current price, the SWS DCF model tells a different story, with WaFd at $38.12 compared with an estimated future cash flow value of $35.56, implying the stock is trading above that intrinsic value estimate. That raises a simple question: which framework do you trust more for your own valuation work?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

WAFD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026
WAFD Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out WaFd for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 48 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With sentiment on WaFd mixed between its risks and rewards, take a moment to look through the data yourself and decide where you stand, then weigh up the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond WaFd?

If WaFd has sharpened your focus, use this moment to broaden your search and line up a few more opportunities before the market moves without you.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.