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Ørsted (CPSE:ORSTED) Lands Major Supply Deal, Is The Stock Now Too Expensive?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Why Ørsted Stock Is Back in Focus After a Major Supply Deal

Good Energy has signed the largest energy supply deal in its 26 year history with Ørsted (CPSE:ORSTED), a long term power purchase agreement that gives investors a fresh data point on Ørsted’s commercial pipeline.

See our latest analysis for Ørsted.

The Ørsted share price has gained 18.48% year to date, with shorter term momentum positive on a 1 day, 7 day and 30 day basis. However, the 1 year total shareholder return is down 10.95% and the 5 year total shareholder return is down 69.96%, so recent optimism is still set against a weak longer term record.

If this Ørsted deal has you thinking more broadly about the energy transition, it could be a good moment to scan companies linked to grid and infrastructure growth using our 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

For Ørsted, this rebound sits awkwardly beside multi year share price declines and a recent loss. This raises a simple question as you look at the valuation next: is the move about better fundamentals or changing sentiment?

Most Popular Narrative: 57.9% Overvalued

According to the most followed Ørsted narrative, the fair value sits at DKK96.02 per share, well below the last close of DKK151.65. This frames the current rebound in a different light.

Ørsted A/S (ORSTED) https://orsted.com/en/investors, is a Danish energy company that has transformed from a traditional oil and gas player (formerly DONG Energy) into the world's largest developer of offshore wind energy. As of February 2026, it is a key asset for the "green" portfolio, having completed a period of large-scale transformation and a profitability crisis.

Read the complete narrative.

The narrative focuses on a full business reset, resumed profitability and a power purchase agreement pipeline tied to energy hungry data centers. It examines which growth, margin and discount rate assumptions would need to align for that DKK96.02 figure to make sense relative to Ørsted's recent share price rebound.

Result: Fair Value of DKK96.02 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Ørsted’s recent loss of DKK540 million and the 69.96% decline in 5 year total shareholder return could still challenge confidence in the view that the stock is overvalued.

Find out about the key risks to this Ørsted narrative.

Another View on Ørsted’s Valuation

The user generated narrative suggests Ørsted is overvalued at DKK151.65 compared with a fair value of DKK96.02, yet the SWS DCF model points the other way. On that view, Ørsted trades around 37.1% below an estimated fair value of DKK241.16, which implies a very different story. Which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ORSTED Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026
ORSTED Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026

Next Steps

With mixed signals around Ørsted’s valuation and outlook, it makes sense to move quickly, review the underlying data and pressure test the narrative yourself using our 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Ørsted?

If Ørsted has sharpened your focus on where capital might work harder, do not stop here. The next strong idea could be one smart screen away.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.