AMD (AMD.US) AI Conference is coming this week! UBS: The CPU/GPU technology route is the highlight. Customer capacity expansion expectations should not be too high

The Zhitong Finance App learned that AMD (AMD.US)'s annual flagship AI conference “Innovative AI 2026” will be held from July 22 to 23, local time in San Francisco, USA. UBS released a forward-looking report saying that the event may focus more on showcasing technology rather than disclosing customer or financial information. It is expected that AMD will announce the latest developments in data center CPU (including Venice, Verano) and GPU (Mi450x and Mi500) technology routes; the embedded and gaming graphics card businesses will also update relevant information simultaneously. UBS gave AMD a “buy” rating, and the target price was raised from $670 to $700.

UBS said in the report that AMD's Promised AI event was held before Intel's earnings report was released, about two weeks before AMD's own earnings report was released. Investors' focus is on whether the company can expand its AI customer base to more vendors other than OpenAI and Meta, but UBS determined that the event will focus on releasing a technical roadmap rather than drastically adjusting the financial calculation model.

On the customer side, UBS still believes that Amazon will become the core major customer of the Mi450x, and Anthropic may also be on the customer list, but the bank advises investors to lower their expectations for the official announcement of new customers at this event.

In addition to the official announcement of potential customer cooperation, UBS expects AMD to fully update the AI product line plan: disclose more details about the MI450x Helios and MI500 series, or release information related to the MI600 roadmap ahead of time, and possibly explain layout strategies for emerging distributed inference computing power loads.

In addition to AI acceleration chips, UBS expects AMD to make a more optimistic judgment on the server CPU market space. The last time AMD officially updated the overall potential market size (TAM) for server CPUs was in the financial report for the first quarter of 2026. At the time, it was estimated that the market size could reach 120 billion US dollars in 2030, and since then, industry data has increased significantly.

UBS expects AMD to officially announce the official mass production of the next-generation EPYC server processor codenamed “Venice”, and also announce more Verano product information. UBS determined that Verano would use TSMC's 2 nm process and be equipped with a SOCAMM2 memory solution based on LPDDR. In view of the explosive growth in computing power demand for intelligent AI, AMD may disclose the next-generation CPU route plan after Verano.

In terms of client business, as Intel accelerates the promotion of Panther Lake laptop chips based on the 18A process, UBS expects AMD to update the progress of the Ryzen (RYZEN) notebook product line, further explain plans to switch the desktop platform Zen 6 architecture to the 2nm process, and announce the development progress of Ryzen Al Halo. Ryzen Al Halo is a product created by AMD against Nvidia's DGX Spark, targeting the rapidly emerging personal AI device circuit.

Boosted by demand for AI computing power and infrastructure continuing to exceed expectations, UBS raised AMD's overall performance forecast: FY2026 revenue/diluted earnings per share was raised from 50 billion dollars/$7.61 billion to $51 billion/$7.69 billion; and revenue per diluted share for fiscal year 2027 was raised from $79 billion/$13.47 to $83 billion/$14.63 billion. GPU revenue forecast for FY2027 was raised from US$38 billion to US$41 billion; FY2028 was raised from US$54 billion to US$61 billion.