GF Securities: Consumption tax policy adjustments implemented to benefit leading companies and new battery technology

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that on July 19, three departments including the Ministry of Finance announced that they would reinstate consumption tax on some batteries step by step. The bank believes that integrated exports of lithium batteries and energy storage are expected to enjoy preferential consumption tax benefits. The bank believes that the overall impact of the policy on the battery industry is limited, and the impact on downstream demand is overseas energy storage <new energy vehicles<domestic energy storage. This policy adjustment is also conducive to the penetration of new battery technologies such as sodium electricity and solid-state batteries. The 26H2 peak season is imminent. The valuation of leading battery manufacturers has a margin of safety, leading technological innovation in the industrial chain; optimistic about the trend of continuous profit recovery in midstream materials, AI is driving demand for HVLP copper foil.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

This policy adjustment will reinstate consumption tax on some batteries step by step

According to the official website of the Ministry of Finance, on July 19, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation announced that from September 1, '26, consumption tax will be levied on mercury-free primary batteries, metal hydride nickel batteries, lithium primary batteries, lithium-ion batteries, and all-vanadium liquid flow batteries; from September 1, '27, consumption tax will be levied on these battery products at a rate of 4%. From September 1, '26 to December 31, '28, perovskite batteries, laminated batteries, and gallium arsenide batteries in sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, and photovoltaic cells are exempt from consumption tax.

Integrated exports of lithium batteries and energy storage are expected to enjoy preferential consumption tax

Refer to the “Provisional Regulations on Consumption Tax of the People's Republic of China”. Within the People's Republic of China, it means that the place of departure or location of the production, processing, and import of consumer goods subject to consumption tax is within the country. Lithium-ion batteries consumed domestically are subject to consumption tax. The bank believes that integrated exports of lithium batteries and energy storage are expected to enjoy preferential consumption tax benefits.

The overall impact on the battery industry is limited

The bank estimates that according to the battery price of 0.40 yuan/Wh, the 2% and 4% tax rates correspond to about 0.008 yuan/Wh and 0.016 yuan/Wh, which is equivalent to an increase in lithium carbonate prices of 12,300 yuan/ton and 24,600 yuan/ton. Assuming that the annual lithium battery shipment volume in '28 was 4,000 GWH, corresponding industry revenue of 1.6 trillion yuan. Based on the 4% tax rate, the corresponding consumption tax scale was about 64 billion yuan. Assuming that the export ratio was 30%, the consumption tax on the battery export portion was preferential. The corresponding consumption tax scale was about 44.8 billion yuan, and the overall impact of consumption tax on the battery industry was limited.

The bank believes that the impact on downstream demand is overseas energy storage <new energy vehicles<domestic energy storage

The impact on overseas energy storage companies such as Sunshine Power and Helen Zhe is small. Battery manufacturers such as Ningde Times can transfer part of the consumption tax to downstream customers, and the impact is manageable. It favors the high-quality development of the industry and leading enterprises. Leading battery companies have stronger bargaining power, are more capable of transmitting costs to downstream customers, and leading companies account for a higher share of exports and are less affected. Policies are expected to accelerate the clearance of the industry's production capacity and promote long-term high-quality development of the industry. Furthermore, this policy adjustment is also conducive to the penetration of new battery technologies such as sodium electricity and solid-state batteries.

Investment advice

The 26H2 peak season is imminent. The valuation of leading battery manufacturers has a margin of safety, leading technological innovation in the industrial chain, and is focusing on BYD, etc.; in addition, they are optimistic about the trend of continuous profit restoration of midstream materials, AI is driving demand for HVLP copper foil, and focusing on Telford Technology, Tongguan Copper Foil, Taijin New Energy, etc.; The negative electrode valuation has a safety margin, focusing on Shangtai Technology, Zhongke Electric, etc.; there is a broad substitution space for domestic production of semiconductor wet electronics chemicals, 6F The company has related new product layouts, focusing on Xinzhoubang, polyfluoride, etc.; lithium iron Profit improvement. Focus on Fulin Seiko, Hunan Yuneng, Wanrun New Energy, etc. In addition, we recommend leading companies that store energy overseas, such as Sunshine Power, Helen Zhe, etc.

Risk Alerts

Downstream demand falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate, the industrialization of new technologies falls short of expectations, and industry competition intensifies.