The Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VISTAA) Second-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VISTAA), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$1.2b coming in 4.8% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$6.71, in line with analyst appraisals. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Vista Energy. de's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$4.11b in 2026. This would reflect a notable 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.2% to US$8.06. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.24b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.26 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
See our latest analysis for Vista Energy. de
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of Mex$1,636, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Vista Energy. de's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Vista Energy. de analyst has a price target of Mex$1,877 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$1,361. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Vista Energy. de'shistorical trends, as the 36% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 32% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Vista Energy. de is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$1,636, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Vista Energy. de going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Vista Energy. de (including 1 which is concerning) .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.