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Emerson Electric (EMR) Launches Refinery Software, Is It Still 15% Below Fair Value?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Emerson Electric’s refinery software launch puts automation in focus

Emerson Electric (EMR) has rolled out new refinery software, Crude Schedule Optimization and Multi-Blend Optimization. The tools are aimed at automating crude scheduling and product blending, two processes that are highly time intensive and closely tied to margins.

See our latest analysis for Emerson Electric.

Emerson Electric’s share price has eased in recent months, with a 30-day share price return down 7.38% and a 90-day share price return down 4.93%. At the same time, the 3-year total shareholder return of 61.57% and 5-year total shareholder return of 56.65% point to a stronger longer term record, as investors weigh recent refinery software launches against expectations already reflected in the current US$139.54 share price.

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With Emerson Electric shares easing after recent gains and new refinery software now in the mix, it comes down to a simple choice: take today’s US$139.54 entry or wait and hope the valuation swings more in your favor next.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued

Emerson Electric’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $163.47 per share, compared with the latest close at $139.54. This frames the new refinery software within a broader automation and industrial AI thesis.

The accelerating adoption of digital automation and artificial intelligence solutions in global industrial markets is fueling strong demand for Emerson's advanced software platforms and AI-enabled products, such as Ovation 4.0 and Nigel AI adviser, which is resulting in robust order growth and positions the company for sustained revenue expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative supports a higher value for Emerson Electric? The entire case leans on steady revenue expansion, rising margins, and a richer profit base than today. Curious which growth, profitability, and valuation assumptions sit underneath that view? The full narrative lays out the numbers that drive this fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $163.47 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the Emerson Electric narrative also faces pressure from project execution risks and exposure to trade and FX swings that could affect margins and the timing of orders.

Find out about the key risks to this Emerson Electric narrative.

Another View on Emerson Electric’s valuation

The analyst narrative suggests Emerson Electric is 14.6% undervalued at a fair value of $163.47, yet Simply Wall St’s own DCF model points a different way, with an estimate of $95.73 per share that would place the stock in overvalued territory. Which set of assumptions do you find more realistic for the long haul?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

EMR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026
EMR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Emerson Electric for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed views on Emerson Electric’s valuation and outlook, do you want to rely on others or quickly review the data yourself and decide? To see both sides of the debate in one place, check out the 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Emerson Electric?

If Emerson Electric has sharpened your interest in automation and industrial themes, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener now to uncover fresh ideas.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.