Overnight US stocks | The three major indices closed down this week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 10% this week, the biggest weekly decline since April last year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Friday, the three major indices closed down, and the dark side of the month released a new model, Kimi K3, to once again shake the market's core assumptions about large-scale AI computing power investment with a low-cost, open-source strategy. Global technology and semiconductor stocks fell sharply in response, and investors' concerns about the repetition of the “DeepSeek Moment” spread rapidly. The US stock Philadelphia Semiconductor Index retreated more than 20% from the highest level in closing history set on June 22 and entered a bear market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 10% this week, the biggest weekly decline since April 2025.

The three major US stock indexes all recorded declines this week. The Dow closed down 0.93%, the NASDAQ fell 2.9%, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.55%.

[US stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 406.55 points, or 0.77%, to 52146.42 points; the NASDAQ fell 361.70 points, or 1.40%, to 25520.24 points; the S&P 500 index fell 76.08 points, or 1.01%, to 7457.69 points. Chip stocks had mixed ups and downs, with Western Digital (WDC.US) up 2.23%, SK Hynix ADR (SKHY.US) up 1.13%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) down 2.21%, Meta Platforms (META.US) down 2.79%, and SpaceX (SPCX.US) down 5.43%. Apple (AAPL.US) closed up 0.14%, briefly surpassing Nvidia in intraday market capitalization. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.82%, and Alibaba (BABA.US) fell 2%.

[European stocks] The German DAX30 index fell 27.30 points, or 0.11%, to 24839.16 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 23.21 points, or 0.22%, to 10595.45 points; the French CAC40 index fell 39.05 points, or 0.47%, to 8338.81 points; the European Stoxx 50 index fell 48.56 points, or 0.77%, to 6235.05 points; Spain's IBEX35 index fell 22.17 points, or 0.12%, to report 19216.23 points; Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 490.96 points, or 0.94%, to 51883.00 points.

[Asian stock market] The Nikkei 225 index fell 4.03%, and the South Korean stock market was closed for one day due to Constitution Day.

[US Dollar Index] The US dollar index rose slightly on the 17th. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against the six major currencies, closed at 100.765 at the end of the foreign exchange market on the same day, slightly higher than 100.763 on the previous trading day. As of the end of the exchange market in New York, 1 euro was worth 1.1436 US dollars, lower than 1.1438 US dollars on the previous trading day; 1 pound was worth 1.3454 US dollars, lower than 1.3470 US dollars on the previous trading day. 1 US dollar was worth 162.45 yen, up from 162.39 yen on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 0.8075 Swiss franc, lower than 0.8089 Swiss franc on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 1.4011 Canadian dollars, lower than 1.4048 Canadian dollars on the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was worth 9.6497 SEK, lower than 9.6497 SEK on the previous trading day.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin continued to hover around 64,000, at $6,3974.28; Ethereum fell more than 1.6% to $1839.25.

[Crude oil] International oil prices rose significantly on the 17th. Light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.54, or 4.48%, to close at $82.49 a barrel by the close of the day; London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose $3.87, or 4.59%, to close at $88.10 a barrel by the close of the day.

[Precious Metals] Spot gold rose 1% to $4018.36; spot silver rose 0.77% to $55.55.

[Macro News]

Trump: “Good news” came from inflation in June, and the US ushered in a “golden age.” US President Trump said that the June inflation data came with exciting good news! The monthly CPI rate showed the biggest decline in six years. The June CPI was lower than the forecast for every economist (67 people in total) surveyed by the media. Prices of various commodities such as gasoline, electricity, car insurance, hotels and prescription drugs have all declined. In the face of strong wage growth and falling prices, real wages rose sharply by 0.8%. As investment continues to pour into the US, factory construction expands rapidly, the number of people employed in the manufacturing industry increases, and prices continue to fall, we have so much to be proud of — America's golden age has arrived!

The dollar hedging cost fell to its lowest level this year. The cost of hedging against dollar fluctuations has fallen to its lowest level since this year. This week, the one-month implied volatility index of the US dollar spot index fell to its lowest level since December last year, falling sharply from the sharp rise after the outbreak of the Iran war in March. This shows that despite the uncertain outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy and the resurgence of the Middle East conflict, traders still believe that the possibility of a major incident impacting this global reserve currency is minimal. This calm market trend reinforces one of the main characteristics of this year's market: the durability of the US stock market and the reduction in currency volatility encourage investors to pour in large numbers into arbitrage trading. This type of trading can profit from interest rate differences, and often performs best when exchange rates and risk appetite remain stable. Francesco Pesole, a foreign exchange strategist at Dutch International Group, said the decline in dollar volatility was “remarkable.” “Stock market resilience, supported by the AI boom, appears to be stabilizing the exchange rate and helping to maintain a self-reinforcing environment where low volatility and arbitrage trading prevail.” He added that even if there is a pullback in technology stocks, this trading strategy will remain popular.

Consumer confidence in the US improved in July, and the resurgence of the Middle East conflict brought downside risks. In July, the US consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in five months, but given the renewed conflict in the Middle East driving up gasoline prices, this improvement may only be temporary. The University of Michigan Consumer Survey said on Friday that its consumer confidence index rose to 54.4 this month, the highest level since February, while the final value for June was 49.5. Economists had previously predicted a rise to 51.0. The survey was conducted from June 23 to July 13. More than 70% of the interviews were completed before the cease-fire agreement between the US and Iran broke down last week. The incident had pushed oil prices to a one-month high. Affected by this, gasoline prices have risen accordingly. “This month's rise in consumer confidence was felt across all classes, regardless of age, income, wealth, or political party affiliation,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Consumer Survey Program. “However, as prices remain high, consumers are not optimistic about the economic outlook; the confidence index is 12% lower than a year ago. Therefore, if the recent downward trend in gasoline prices continues to be reversed, this upward trend in confidence may be difficult to maintain.”

[Individual Stock News]

According to reports, Apple is in early settlement negotiations with the US Department of Justice on the antitrust case. People familiar with the matter revealed that Apple (AAPL.US) and the US Department of Justice are in preliminary settlement negotiations on a 2024 lawsuit accusing Apple of violating antitrust laws. Apple and the US Department of Justice have yet to immediately respond to requests for comment. The report said that the two sides are actively negotiating, but there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached in the end. It also added that Apple has submitted a number of proposals to the US Department of Justice to resolve the case. In 2024, as the government's crackdown on tech giants intensified, the US Department of Justice and 15 states filed lawsuits against Apple, accusing it of monopolizing the smartphone market, harming the interests of small competitors, and driving up prices. According to reports, it is currently impossible to know whether the state attorneys general are in the process of settlement negotiations.

Meta is rumored to have negotiated a transaction scale of up to $10 billion to rent computing power to Anthropic. According to reports, three sources revealed that Meta Platforms (META.US) is in talks to rent out the computing power of its AI data center to Anthropic. The two-year cooperation agreement can reach up to 10 billion US dollars. Sources said Anthropic proposed the cooperation plan in June, Meta is currently evaluating it, and details of the deal are still being adjusted. According to the plan, Anthropic will pay Meta in monthly installments over two years, and both companies have the right to terminate the agreement early. Anthropic's proposed procurement of computing power to Meta this time is only one-third of the contract it signed with SpaceX in May of this year. People familiar with the matter said that negotiations are still in the early stages and may not be settled in the end.

TSMC is increasing its investment in the US Trump: inviting everyone to build a factory in the US. US President Trump said that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) announced that it will invest another 100 billion US dollars in semiconductor manufacturing plants in Arizona. This brought its total investment to build a factory in the US to a record $265 billion. My trade policies and trade agreements are delivering on everything I promised. From automobiles and pharmaceuticals to semiconductors, and the entire economy, the Trump administration is bringing advanced manufacturing back to America. This is what success looks like! Massive recruitment, large-scale construction, large-scale investment - welcome to America's golden age, and we invite everyone to build a factory in the US.

According to reports, SpaceX is in talks to provide billions of dollars of computing power for the US Department of Defense's AI project. According to reports, sources revealed that SpaceX (SPCX.US) is in talks with the US Department of Defense to provide the agency with computing power worth several billion dollars to run artificial intelligence models and further strengthen the cooperative relationship between Musk and the US Department of Defense. These negotiations are still ongoing, but there is a risk that they will eventually break down. According to people familiar with related plans, SpaceX has signed similar agreements with Anthropic and Google in recent months, and is currently planning to significantly expand its cloud computing business. According to people familiar with the matter, in recent weeks, SpaceX employees have discussed plans to provide computing power to AI customers at lower prices to compete more directly with existing vendors such as CoreWeave.

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