Coin price cuts mining companies to double: AI infrastructure logic reshapes valuation

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin's market capitalization has dropped by 46.12% over the past year, but according to RootData data, the stock prices of mining companies such as HUT (HUT.US), WULF, IREN (IREN.US), RIOT, and CLSK bucked the trend, with increases ranging from 12.41% to 363.26%.

This divergence shows that the market valuation logic has completely moved away from on-chain output to anchor the scarce resource attributes of AI infrastructure.

Fundamental data, however, showed clear conflicting signals. Operational data for June showed that despite the continued decline in the difficulty of the Bitcoin network, CleanSpark, BitFufu (FUFU.US), and Can.US (CAN.US) saw output declines of 9% to 29%, respectively. Specifically, CleanSpark produced 614 units in June, down 9% from 671 in May; the gap between nominal computing power 50 EH/s and actual operating computing power of 42.6 EH/s widened to 7.4 EH/s; BitFuFU produced 125 units, down 29.4% month-on-month, and the total computing power dropped from 19.5 EH/s to 15.3 EH/s, mainly due to shrinking computing power of third party hosting; Canan Technology produced 64 units, a drop of 29%, blamed on grid maintenance.

Notably, the difficulty level was reduced by 10.09% on June 14, then dropped by 5% to 127.17 T on July 11, a cumulative decrease of 18% compared to the peak of 155 T in November 2025. It is reasonable to reduce difficulty and increase output, but the reality is that miners are leaving on a large scale. According to Galaxy Research, this is the biggest wave of withdrawals since China's rectification in 2021. The core reason is the cost inversion: the average cash cost of listed mining companies rose to $79,995 in the fourth quarter of 2025. J.P. Morgan estimates that the current cost is about $78,000, while the currency price is only $64,000. The loss has continued for five months, and about 20% of miners have lost money. The hash price dropped to $28 to $30 in March 2026 and is still at an all-time low of $32.

The core of the valuation restructuring is the scarcity and time advantage of AI infrastructure. According to PJM data, AI projects starting in 2025 take an average of seven years, of which three years to obtain a grid-connected agreement and four years to wait to connect to the grid. Meanwhile, mining companies already have ready-made electricity and sites, which directly saves a seven-year cycle. CleanSpark (CLSK.US) signed a 20-year lease agreement with a technology company in Sandersville, Georgia on July 14, with an initial value of $6.6 billion, corresponding to 175 megawatts of IT load. Delivery is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2027. The stock price surged 22% on the same day. MARA (MARA.US) also acquired the Texas project company for $600 million, with a planned capacity of 2 gigawatts. Although it currently only has a letter of intent, it will still need to go through a seven-year grid-connection process.

The credit market turned, and TeraWulf (WULF.US), led by Morgan Stanley, plans to raise $3.5 billion to expand the Accumulated Data data center in Hawesville, Kentucky, to get involved in leveraged loans for the first time. According to the data, as of early May 2026, the industry has signed a contract for a capacity of about 3,201 megawatts, corresponding to an IT load exceeding US$91.4 billion. The market value is positively correlated with North American AI power reserves. CoinShares predicts that by the end of 2026, 70% of listed mining companies' revenue will come from AI and HPC businesses, compared to only 30% at the beginning of the year. TeraWolf has pioneered this structure, with HPC leasing revenue of $21 million in the first quarter, surpassing $13 million in mining revenue for the first time.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that valuation decoupling involves a triple risk. First, the transmission of macro-fluctuations has intensified. Since April 2026, mining companies' stock prices have been out of touch with the Bitcoin trend, and RIOT.US (RIOT.US) trend is more in line with the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF. The current AI development focuses on global supply chain competition, and the prospects for China's big model concept stocks and Korean semiconductors directly affect the stock prices of mining companies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 10.8% in ten trading days, and Reuters estimated that the industry's market value had evaporated by $1.3 trillion, due to concerns about the return on AI investment, overvaluation, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policies. Second, there are serious differences in return on investment.

Core Scientific (CORZ.US)'s five-year partnership with CoreWeave had an average return of 75%, but stemmed from the tenant's upfront payment of $750 million of $750 million, a non-deal clause advantage; Riot converted the mine to a 23% return. Industry benchmark returns are actually lower: 5% for TeraWolf, 4% for Cipher (CIFR.US), and 4% for CleanSpark. On July 1, Meta announced the launch of the Meta Compute service. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.3% on the same day; the next day, SK Hynix CEO announced that SK Group will invest 100 trillion won in stages in Korea, initially 5 gigawatts, and expand to 15 gigawatts in the future. There is a stark contrast between demand-side self-built facilities and mining companies' signing 15 to 20-year leases, causing mining companies' stock prices to drop 20% this month.

Obstacles to implementation pose a third level of risk. Mining companies set prices according to future plans rather than realized revenue. Although CleanSpark signed a $6.6 billion contract, revenue still depends entirely on mining, and the first deliveries of the AI business are expected in the fourth quarter of 2027. Financing is the primary obstacle. According to its 8-K document, the 175 MW facility costs between $10 million and $12 million per megawatt, with a total capital expenditure of $1.75 billion to $2.1 billion. Funding is not yet in place, and leases may be cut or the agreement terminated if financing fails. Regulatory approvals are also strict. On July 14, New York Governor Hochul signed an executive order suspending approval of licenses for data centers over 50 megawatts, and the Environmental Protection Agency also suspended related approvals for up to one year. Tenant quality is also critical. Bernstein points out that large cloud service providers bring stable cash flow and low financing costs, while small GPU cloud providers mean high risk and high costs.

The shift in valuation logic has profoundly affected miners' sell-off behavior. In the first quarter of 2026, listed mining companies sold around 32,000 BTC, more than the total for the full year of 2025. RIOT produced 1,473 units during the quarter, but sold 3,778 units. The sell-off volume exceeded production by 2 times, and its holdings fell to 15,680 units, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. In the past, miners only sold off due to cash flow requirements and waited for high prices; now, transformation financing has become a new driver. Selling is used for mine maintenance, land acquisition, and AI construction capital expenses, and continues to sell even when the price of the currency is stable. The logic of returning computing power has also changed. After China's rectification in 2021, the difficulty level was reduced by 46%, and computing power was restored in six months; now it is not only equipment, but also electricity and capital that are being withdrawn. Mainstream AI projects are mostly leased for a period of 10 years or more, and once resources are locked in, it is difficult to return to mining. Mining companies are gradually leaving the cryptocurrency industry, and the capital market is already priced according to this fact. Although they are still mining, they are evolving into a new type of enterprise that pursues electricity, land, and long-term leases.