On July 17, the 2026 “My Steel” Mid-Year Conference and Steel Industry Chain Collaborative Innovation and High Quality Development Forum was held in Beijing. Guo Zhaohui, chief commodity analyst and managing director of CICC, said at the conference that a new commodity supercycle has yet to arrive. Reviewing history, all supercycles have relied on the explosion of global demand brought about by the industrialization and urbanization of large economies. Currently, only new industries such as AI and new energy sources drive partial increases in non-ferrous metals such as copper, and there is no global demand support that can drive the overall recovery of energy, black, and agricultural products. In the future, it is necessary to continue to observe when ASEAN and other economies undertaking capacity transfers will begin full industrialization. This is the key condition for spawning the supercycle.

On July 17, the 2026 “My Steel” Mid-Year Conference and Steel Industry Chain Collaborative Innovation and High Quality Development Forum was held in Beijing. Guo Zhaohui, chief commodity analyst and managing director of CICC, said at the conference that a new commodity supercycle has yet to arrive. Reviewing history, all supercycles have relied on the explosion of global demand brought about by the industrialization and urbanization of large economies. Currently, only new industries such as AI and new energy sources drive partial increases in non-ferrous metals such as copper, and there is no global demand support that can drive the overall recovery of energy, black, and agricultural products. In the future, it is necessary to continue to observe when ASEAN and other economies undertaking capacity transfers will begin full industrialization. This is the key condition for spawning the supercycle.