Piper Sandler first reviewed the three major commercial space stocks: the only one to “gain” AST SpaceMobile, SpaceX and Rocket Lab still have short-term headwinds

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on July 16, Piper Sandler covered the three space companies receiving market attention for the first time and gave very different ratings: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) was given an “plus” rating with a target price of $100; at the same time, Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) were given “neutral” ratings, with target prices of $83 and $156, respectively.

Piper Sandler's core judgment is that although reusable rocket technology is the most valuable long-term competitive advantage in the space economy, SpaceX and Rocket Lab “may be the best positioned company” within a multi-year time frame, AST SpaceMobile provides “a more acceptable valuation and a clearer EBITDA growth path” over the next 12 months.

AST SpaceMobile: a “satellite broadband unicorn” with the best risk-reward ratio, cooperation rather than competition

Piper Sandler's five-star analyst Alexander Potter made it clear when starting coverage that AST SpaceMobile currently provides the best risk-reward ratio among the three space stocks because its valuation is more attractive and the EBITDA growth path is clearer.

AST SpaceMobile's core business model is to cooperate rather than compete with major mobile network operators such as AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Rakuten. Piper believes this strategy enables it to cover more than 3 billion wireless users around the world. Analysts forecast that the company's revenue will grow from around US$166 million in 2026 to more than US$5 billion in 2031, with EBITDA likely to reach approximately US$4.2 billion during the same period. The target price of $100 is based on 20 times 2031 EV/EBITDA and discounted to current value by 15%.

However, Piper also pointed out the significant risks facing AST: competition for SpaceX's Starlink direct mobile phone service is the biggest threat; the company requires huge capital expenses; and there is uncertainty about satellite deployment plans, regulatory approvals, and customer acceptance.

On the same day that Piper released its rating, AST SpaceMobile announced plans to issue 1 billion US dollars of convertible senior notes through private placement, causing market concerns about stock dilution. The stock price plummeted by more than 17% on the same day. This is the second time during the year that the company has raised $1 billion in convertible bonds (first in February). The company said the funds raised will be used to obtain additional orbital use rights and explore cooperation or acquisition opportunities to reduce reliance on third-party launch providers. Since the stock price broke through $130 at the end of May, ASTS has fallen from an all-time high. Piper's $100 target price means about 50% upside. Wall Street's consensus rating for the stock is “hold,” with an average target price of $79.78, according to data from 10 analysts counted by S&P Global.

Rocket Lab: SpaceX's 'strongest replacement', but optimism is well priced

Piper gave Rocket Lab a “neutral” rating with a target price of $83, positioning it as the most powerful SpaceX alternative among listed launch service providers, highlighting its vertically integrated business model and the excellent performance of the Electron rocket project with around 90 successful launches.

The company has completed the full cycle testing of the Archimedes vacuum engine. The company's future growth is largely dependent on the successful development and deployment of a larger reusable neutron rocket (Neutron), which is targeted for its first flight in the fourth quarter of 2026. Additionally, Rocket Lab recently announced the acquisition of Iridium Communications for $8 billion, further expanding its business footprint.

Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that the deal made Rocket Lab “more and more like a 'mini SpaceX'” and raised its bullish scenario target price from $185 to $293, but Piper expects Rocket Lab's stock price trend to remain highly correlated with SpaceX in the coming year.

Although Piper believes Rocket Lab has the power to challenge SpaceX, analysts say the stock price already reflects much optimism — its corporate value/revenue ratio is even higher than SpaceX. As of July 16, Rocket Lab's stock price was reported at about $67.30, which has retracted about 55% from the 52-week high of $150.23 in May.

SpaceX: Strong long-term narrative, short-term headwinds suppress upward space

Piper is “confident” about SpaceX's long-term future, believing that it played a key role in the creation of the modern space services industry and may eventually benefit from emerging opportunities such as orbital AI infrastructure. The target price of $156 is also based on 20 times 2031 EV/EBITDA with a 15% discount.

However, analysts have pointed out a number of factors that may limit the room for stock prices to rise in the near future: the expiration of the phased lifting period will release a large number of tradable shares; uncertainty about Tesla's potential acquisition; and the huge capital expenses required for future growth plans — Piper is expected to “easily consume tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars a year.” Analysts believe investors may need more evidence to value some of the company's more ambitious projects.

Market data confirmed Piper's careful judgment. As of July 16, SpaceX's stock price had fallen below the $135 IPO price, with a cumulative drop of about 20% in July. Short selling positions have risen to around 29% of tradable shares. Furthermore, the 13th Starship test flight, which was originally scheduled to be carried out on July 16, was automatically aborted during the ignition phase due to some engines failing to start. This was SpaceX's first launch mission since its June IPO. CEO Musk said he would “hope to try again within a few days.”

Industry context: value migration from “launch” to “infrastructure”

Piper's rating choices reflect a deep evolution in space investment logic. Reusable rockets are becoming the most valuable competitive advantage in the space economy. Morgan Stanley pointed out that “the biggest value creation in the space economy does not come only from the launch business, but from having differentiated infrastructure.”

The three companies represent three different paths to the space economy: AST SpaceMobile is betting on the telecommunication-grade market of “mobile phones directly connected to satellites”; SpaceX is building a vertical empire from launch to Starlink to orbital AI; and Rocket Lab is transforming from a launch service provider to a “closed-loop space ecosystem.”

Piper's choice is clear: in the face of SpaceX and Rocket Lab, whose valuations fully reflect the long-term narrative, AST SpaceMobile is the best short-term cost-effective choice. But the long-term competitive landscape of the space economy is far from settled — as Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck said, despite investing billions of dollars and more than 100 companies trying, “in fact, only two companies” have achieved reliable, conventional launch services.

The differentiation logic of Piper Sandler's ratings this time is clear: AST SpaceMobile received “gain” due to lower valuations and a clearer profit path; while SpaceX and Rocket Lab have long-term competitive advantages in reusable rocket technology and vertical integration models, high short-term valuations, significant capital expenditure requirements, and unique uncertainties (unban/acquisition rumors/starship test flights) made Piper choose a “neutral” position. Notably, Wall Street's overall view of these three stocks is different from PIPer — analysts believe SpaceX has the most upside, and the average target price of $243.81 means a potential increase of about 80%.