Guohai Securities: Slowing down and improving loan quality or becoming the new normal, optimizing the reverse repurchase operation mechanism

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that social finance was +7.4% year-on-year in June, there was a decrease in new social finance over the same period last year, direct financing was active, and the amount of new government bonds slowed markedly. The credit side relies on bill financing. The medium- to long-term credit demand of enterprises and residents continues to weaken, and slowing down and improving loan quality may become the new normal. The central bank stated that it is not appropriate to judge policy tightness based only on a single open market operation. Short-term interest rates are the core observation indicator. In the future, it will optimize the overnight reverse repurchase operation mechanism to smoothly care for market liquidity. The bank maintains the banking industry's “Recommended” rating.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

There was a year-on-year decrease in the number of new social finance additions in June, and direct financing was active

In June 2026, social finance increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 861.5 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 1764.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 595.5 billion yuan; government bonds increased by 768.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 582.1 billion yuan. The pace of government bond issuance in the first half of the year was relatively moderate. The net financing volume of corporate bonds+stocks increased by 203.7 billion yuan over the same period last year, or due to the current economic structure, science and innovation companies are more likely to choose direct financing methods such as equity and bonds.

Slowing down and improving loan quality may become the new normal

Various loans increased by 1610 billion yuan in June 2026, which is in line with the characteristics of the end of the quarter being a peak credit investment season; however, demand was still weak year over year, with a decrease of 630 billion yuan over the same period last year. Medium- and long-term corporate loans increased by 560 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion yuan, and the willingness of physical enterprises to invest in the medium to long term was still weak; bill financing increased by 114.4 billion yuan, an increase of 525.3 billion yuan over the previous year, which was the core credit impulse item for the month. Residents' credit is still in the contraction range. Short-term loans to residents increased by 106.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156 billion yuan; medium- and long-term loans to residents increased by 158.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 176.9 billion yuan.

Liquidity regulation anchors short-term interest rates and optimizes reverse repurchase operation mechanisms

In terms of monetary policy, the central bank pointed out that open market operations are to serve the regulation of total liquidity, and that the scale of a single operation cannot determine policy orientation. The core of regulation is to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and anchor the smooth operation of short-term interest rates. In the future, the central bank will continue to improve the monetary policy operation framework, take into account the actual needs of tier 1 traders, gradually increase the frequency of overnight reverse repurchase operations, and simultaneously improve market communication to guide the market overnight interest rate to run smoothly near the policy interest rate.

Risk Alerts

Financial supervision policies have undergone major changes; the strength and progress of debt conversion have fallen short of expectations; risks in the real estate sector have been concentrated; black swan incidents have occurred during economic recovery; abnormal fluctuations in the bond market have occurred; and the focus is on corporate profit forecasts falling short of expectations.