CICC: Auto sector profits need to be repaired to seize overseas expansion and AI epitaxial growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that in mid-2026, the automotive sector had fully reflected the weakening domestic demand, rising costs, and downward profit pressure in the first half of the year, and there were more clues of marginal improvement in the second half of the year. Passenger cars grasp the high-end, overseas, and smart driving product cycle; commercial vehicles focus on the global mining infrastructure cycle, exports from Asia, Africa and Latin America, and new energy transformation; the industrial chain focuses on AI epitaxial growth such as advanced smart driving, AIDC power generation and liquid cooling, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace.

Passenger cars: Profit downgrades are gradually being put in place, and overseas and high-end technology are still the core hedging. Demand for 1H26 domestic passenger cars was weaker than expected. We expect the total volume to remain under pressure in the 3rd quarter, improving year-on-year in a single month or moving backwards to the 4th quarter; with the concentrated release of new car supply, new energy sales are expected to recover first. On the profit side, 2Q26 may be the low profit point for most car companies. The 3-4Q repair speed depends on high-end model orders, terminal price stability, and export profit contributions. Exports are still an important hedge against 2H vehicle profits and valuations.

Commercial vehicles: The global mining infrastructure cycle is improving, and the transformation of new energy sources opens up incremental growth. We believe that the trade-in policy, infrastructure demand in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and rising mining capital expenditure are all supporting the boom. Emerging markets such as Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Central Asia are still growing at a high rate, and the global mining and infrastructure investment cycle is improving, which is expected to continue to drive China's heavy trucks and construction machinery overseas. At the same time, the electrification of commercial vehicles is accelerating, and European electric commercial vehicles are still in their infancy, opening a new export window for China's new energy commercial vehicles.

Industrial chain: AI epitaxial layout breaks through growth bottlenecks and focuses on the pace of implementation. The traditional growth rate of the automobile industry chain is slowing down, but AI extension is opening up new space. In terms of smart driving, focus on FSD's entry into China and the implementation of L2 smart driving mandatory inspection standards are expected to drive popularity and testing demand. On the AIDC side, the automotive industry chain has taken advantage of engine, thermal management, and liquid cooling technology to enter the data center power generation and liquid cooling process, and some suppliers are expected to contribute to profit elasticity in the second half of the year. In terms of robots, Tesla Optimus climbing the hill, launching an autonomous vehicle, and order fulfillment are core observation points. In terms of commercial aerospace, auto parts companies have industrial mass production and supply chain management capabilities. It is recommended that priority be given to actual orders and performance fulfillment.